The value of the country’s wholesale-and-retail trade sector is projected to grow to P15.1 trillion by 2034, more than triple its estimated ₱4.9 trillion value in 2024.
This growth forecast is outlined in the “Section G: Jobs Blueprint,” a new study launched by a public-private initiative during a media briefing in Quezon City on Monday.
Alongside this projected expansion in value, the industry’s workforce is expected to grow to 12.5 million by 2034 from 10.2 million in 2024 , adding 2.3 million new jobs within the decade.
The sector’s contribution to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is also anticipated to climb to 19.8 percent, up from 18.34 percent this year.
Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) Secretary Cristina Roque said the blueprint will place special emphasis on sari-sari (variety/convenience) stores, which represent a significant portion of the country’s microenterprises and form the grassroots foundation of the retail sector.
Roque plans to meet with representatives of sari-sari store networks to gather insights that will help shape support strategies tailored to their needs.
The trade secretary encouraged small retailers to expand their product lines and explore financing opportunities through the P10-billion loan fund administered by the Small Business Corporation. The blueprint estimates that sari-sari stores could grow their retail value to P2.4 trillion by 2030, a notable jump from the P1.12 trillion to P1.46 trillion annual average recorded in recent years.
The study notes that sari-sari stores account for 15 percent to 20 percent of total retail market activity and comprise 8.3 percent of the informal sector workforce, although no absolute base numbers were provided.
The blueprint is the result of a collaboration among the DTI, the Supply Chain Management Association of the Philippines, and the Philippine Retailers Association. Research was conducted by the University of Asia and the Pacific.
It lays out a six-point framework to future-proof the industry and create sustainable employment.
These include consumer-first strategies, stronger industry competitiveness through cooperation among market players, expanded public-private collaboration, digital transformation, workforce upskilling, and a more resilient and integrated supply chain.
It also outlines 10 key strategies to drive long-term growth in the sector. These involve boosting the sale of locally made products, simplifying business compliance procedures, ensuring fair competition between online and offline sellers, and fostering a more consistent regulatory environment.
The blueprint also emphasizes the need to tap into Filipino consumer behavior and festive spending patterns to position the country as a regional retail hub.
Other priorities include modernizing traditional retail formats, empowering sari-sari stores as community pillars, strengthening industry self-regulation, supporting hybrid retail models, and fast-tracking digital adoption across the board.
