Analyst warns global risk may weigh down future growth
Personal remittances from overseas Filipinos rose by 4.1 percent year-on-year to $2.97 billion in April 2025, up from $2.86 billion a year earlier, data released Monday by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.
For the first four months of the year, total personal remittances grew by 3 percent to $12.37 billion from $12.01 billion in the same period of 2024.
“Higher growth of remittances from the United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates drove the overall increase in remittances during January-April 2025,” the BSP said.
Lower month-on-month
However, on a month-on-month basis, remittance inflows declined by 4.9 percent from $3.13 billion recorded in March—the lowest monthly volume since May 2024.
Cash remittances coursed through banks—a subset of personal remittances—reached $2.66 billion in April, up 4 percent from $2.56 billion a year earlier.
From January to April, bank cash remittances rose to $11.11 billion, a 3 percent increase from $10.78 billion during the same period last year.
Strong peso, weak host country’s economy
Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., noted the 4 percent annual
growth in remittances was among the fastest in more than two years.
However, he pointed out that the April total remittances marked the lowest monthly volume in 11 months.
“A stronger peso may have prompted higher remittance values to preserve the peso equivalent sent to beneficiaries. But slower economic activity in host countries, including the US, may have also weighed on the volume of inflows,” Ricafort said.
Reinielle Matt Erece of Oikonomia Advisory and Research added that seasonal factors may have played a role in the robust April figures, noting that summer months typically see higher inflows.
“With the peso remaining relatively strong, OFWs may be sending more dollars to match the peso value they used to remit,” Erece said.
Global risk warning
John Paolo Rivera, senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, agreed that currency dynamics may be encouraging higher remittance values.
“The year-on-year increase reflects solid fundamentals, including stable overseas employment, particularly in the US, the Middle East and parts of Asia,” Rivera said.
He added, however, that global risk—including inflation in host countries, geopolitical tensions, and potential policy changes such as remittance taxation—could weigh on future growth.