MADRID — Spain’s tourism industry expects growth in summer sales to slow sharply as uncertainty over US tariff negotiations threatens to curb global consumer spending, industry group Exceltur said on Thursday, though it still forecast record visitor numbers.
The group expects revenues of hotels, airlines, restaurants, and other tourism-related businesses to grow 2.7 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, the high season for tourism in the world’s second most-visited country, against 6.3 percent registered in the same period of 2024.
In the second quarter, sales rose 4.5 percent.
The group projected fewer arrivals from Germany and France. International arrivals from the United Kingdom, the US, Japan, and China are still expected to grow, if at a slower pace, it estimated.
Exceltur Vice President Oscar Perelli told a news conference in Madrid there had been a slowdown in tourism from the US since the end of 2024 due to a shift in exchange rates, which he expects to continue through this year.
“At the same time, we are seeing an acceleration in the redistribution of travel to Europe, as Europeans prefer to stay and travel within Europe, and Asians are looking for alternative destinations to the United States,” he said.
Exceltur also revised its full-year estimate for tourism activity to 3.3 percent growth from 4 percent projected earlier this year, still outperforming a projected 2.4 percent expansion of the Spanish economy.
“At the beginning of the year, we thought it would be a very good year. Now, we believe it will be a good year,” Perelli said.
“The confidence of tourism business owners has been affected by the scenario of uncertainty”, he added.
The World Travel and Tourism Council, which represents the travel industry’s private sector, expects a record-breaking 100 million visitors in 2025. Exceltur estimates all tourism revenues will account for some 13.2 percent of Spain’s gross domestic product this year.
