EVs to help fill the gap to 500K cars in 2025

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REACHING a total industry volume (TIV) of 500,000 units is a significant milestone for the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. (CAMPI) as the local car industry finally crosses a target it almost achieved had the pandemic locked down the world. CAMPI predicts that the country can finally cross this threshold in 2025.

This optimistic forecast follows a record year in 2024, where vehicle sales reached 467,252 units, marking an increase of 8.7 percent from the previous year. The growth trajectory is largely attributed to robust demand for commercial vehicles, which accounted for approximately 74.15 percent of total sales.

“Reaching 500,000 unit sales not only represents a benchmark for sales but also reflecting broader economic trends and the health of the sector. Achieving this figure would mark the first time the industry has crossed the 500,000-unit threshold, highlighting a recovery following the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic,” says Lee Junia, automotive industry veteran and now dealership head at Nissan.

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CAMPI President Rommel Gutierrez noted that the introduction of new vehicle models, including electric vehicles (EVs), will play a crucial role in achieving this target. The government’s supportive policies, such as the Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act (EVIDA), are expected to further stimulate EV adoption.

Demand driven in 2024

The growth last year is closely tied to consumer spending, which constitutes about 70 percent of the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP). Increased vehicle purchases can stimulate economic growth by boosting related industries such as manufacturing and services.

As of now, electric vehicles make up a small portion of total vehicle sales in the Philippines, estimated at less than 2 percent. However, there are two problems with that number. First, there isn’t any accurate reporting about the results of the sales of the over 30 EV car models now avaliable in the country. Second is that with the government’s commitment to enhancing EV infrastructure and providing incentives for both manufacturers and consumers, there is potential for significant growth in this sector, the figure could actually be bigger.

Industry analysts from the Electric Vehicle Association of the Philippines say that electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a crucial role in closing any gap toward reaching the 500,000-unit goal, with projections suggesting that EV sales could contribute between 8,000 to 10,000 units in 2025 due to supportive government initiatives and infrastructure development. 

For the local manufacturing sector challenges remain, including local production levels currently below 100,000 units per year and intense competition from foreign brands. This year however, there is one particular model under the lens—the Toyota Tamaraw—which can quickly, in just months after it will be released in its local production form by the end of this month, can easily hit 10,000 units sales by the end of the year. Toyota insiders already are predicting waiting times of up to 5 months.

EVs will close the gap

Projections suggest that over between 5,000 to 8,000 units, very optimistically around 10,000 EVs could be sold in 2025, contributing at least 30 percent to the fill-in for the overall vehicle sales figures.

“The EV industry is poised to create very strong internal competition which is good,” EVAP President Edmund Araga told Malaya Business Insight. He also mentioned that his organization notes an increase in investments in charging equipment, setting up of charging stations and development of real estate which already includes EVs by design. Charging infrastructure is crucial for EV sales, according to the EVAP.

“Achieving 5,000 units sales considering all the available EV car, and commercial vehicle brands, is the minimum expectation. Then there is BYD—which sold over 1,000 units of the Atto 3 last year. The growth can be further expanded to 8,000 units. Tesla already completed its own ecosystem with its charging stations and the inauguration of its Tesla service center. I predict all this good competition will be able to keep the whole EV sales in motion. That’s not only good for the economy, but also for the environment,” Araga notes.

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