Carbon emission reduction to increase
as global trucking goes green
THE global landscape of commercial trucking is charging towards electrification. Currently it is diesel fuel that powers most of the trucks around the world, and traditional truck makers are slowly moving towards electrification.
The global electric commercial truck (ECT) market is slowly booming, driven mostly by stricter emissions regulations, government incentives, declining battery costs, and a growing emphasis on environmental responsibility within the logistics and transport sectors, the ECT landscape is poised for rapid expansion.
According to Markets&Markets, the electric truck market is expected to balloon from USD 70.9 billion in 2024 to a staggering USD 255.6 billion by 2030, reflecting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 23.8 percent.
Stringent government regulations on carbon emissions, particularly prevalent in Europe and North America, are compelling fleet operators to transition towards zero-emission vehicles. Subsidies and tax breaks specifically earmarked for ECT purchases further incentivize this shift. Technological advancements are playing a critical role as well. Rapid improvements in battery technology are steadily extending the range and lowering the total cost of ownership (TCO) for ECTs. Alongside these, advancements in electric motors, power electronics, and charging infrastructure are solidifying the case for ECT adoption.
A growing number of large corporations are setting ambitious environmental targets, including achieving carbon neutrality. The adoption of ECTs is a cornerstone strategy for achieving these goals within their logistics and transport operations. Consumer preferences are also evolving. Consumers are increasingly demanding sustainable products and services, putting pressure on companies across the supply chain to minimize their carbon footprint. This trend indirectly fuels the adoption of ECTs.
The ECT market is a diverse landscape catering to a variety of applications and needs. Also traditional truck makers like DAF, Fleetwood, Hino, Isuzu, Iveco, Mercedes-Benz, Peterbilt, Scania and Volvo are converting its current platforms into electric, while the native EV makers like Tesla and BYD develop from a purely EV platform ensuring motors and batteries are best managed in the design.
The market is primarily segmented into light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty ECTs, with medium and heavy-duty trucks are anticipated to experience the most significant growth due to their prevalence in long-haul operations, where technological advancements are making electrification increasingly feasible.
If based on propulsion, it is battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are currently the dominant force within the ECT market. However, fuel cell electric trucks (FCEVs) are gaining traction, particularly for applications demanding exceptional range and rapid refueling capabilities.
Continued research into further increasing energy density, decreasing costs, and developing faster-charging batteries is key to improving ECT performance and eliminating range limitations. This ongoing evolution will enhance the practicality of commercial electric trucks.
Several innovative projects are shaping the future of electrified trucking
E-Highways: Pioneering projects like Sweden’s ‘Electric Road System’ (ERS) spearheaded by Scania, feature electric trucks using pantographs to draw power from overhead lines on highways. This technology enables long-range trucking while dynamically charging batteries, mitigating range anxiety for long-haul operations.
EV City Buses: Not a new concept but the evolution is increasing in both scope and technology. Companies like Vietnam’s VinFast and Poland’s Solaris are increasing their bus production. The VinBus eC34 for example is a 12-meter electric city bus with a range of up to 220 km on a single charge. With its fast-charging capabilities and modern design and amenities like Wi-Fi and passenger information systems, the VinBus has become a popular mode of transporation in Vietnam with its passenger capacity of up to 68 people.
Mega-chargers: High-powered DC fast chargers capable of delivering megawatts of power are under development to enable rapid charging for heavy-duty ECTs during rest periods. This minimizes downtime and optimizes operational efficiency for long-distance hauls.
Autonomous ECTs: Pilot projects are underway that combine electric trucks with self-driving technology. This has the potential to further increase efficiency, safety, and optimize long-haul operations by reducing driver fatigue and enabling continuous movement.
As mentioned earlier, Europe, North America, and China are spearheading ECT adoption due to robust government policies and incentives. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to emerge as a major growth market in the coming years, driven by economic expansion and growing environmental concerns.
Challenges and opportunities
Despite the promising outlook, the ECT market faces some hurdles:
Upfront Cost: ECTs typically carry higher upfront costs compared to their diesel counterparts. However, TCO calculations are becoming more favorable over time as battery costs decline and government incentives bridge the cost gap.
Charging Infrastructure: Limited availability of widespread and reliable charging infrastructure, especially for heavy-duty long-haul trucks, creates range anxiety and limits Significant investments are needed to expand charging networks and ensure reliable access for ECT operators.
Battery Technology: Continued research into further increasing energy density, decreasing costs, and developing faster-charging batteries is key to improving ECT performance and eliminating range limitations. This ongoing evolution will enhance the practicality of commercial electric trucks.
Real-World implementation
Tesla Semi: applications and impact: Tesla’s Semi has garnered significant attention and is now beginning to enter real-world operations. Companies like PepsiCo have begun integrating Tesla Semis into their fleets, exploring their capability in applications like beverage distribution. These early deployments will provide valuable data on the efficiency, reliability, and cost-effectiveness of heavy-duty electric trucks in real-world scenarios.
Scania in Europe: infrastructure and innovation: Scania’s work on electrifying trucking infrastructure in Europe is noteworthy. Alongside its development of ECTs, Scania is heavily involved in projects like the ‘Electric Road System’ (ERS) in Sweden. Integrating pantograph technology with highways allows for dynamic charging and extended range, potentially revolutionizing long-haul trucking.
BYD in China: urban Operations and expansion: BYD, a major player in the electric vehicle market, is making significant strides in the ECT sector within China. Focusing on applications such as urban delivery, drayage, and refuse collection, BYD’s electric trucks contribute to improving air quality in densely populated areas. They are a driving force behind China’s push towards electrified transport, particularly within cities. BYD buses are found in the US, mostly in the West Coast states.
The global electric commercial truck market stands at a pivotal moment. While certain challenges remain, the incentives for adoption are stronger than ever, driven by regulatory pressure, technological advancements, sustainability priorities, and potential economic advantages. The coming decade is likely to witness the rapid transformation of commercial trucking as electrification reshapes the industry landscape.