Results of the Bangko Sentral’s Q4 2023 Senior Bank Loan Officers’ Survey (SLOS) indicated that most of the respondent banks kept their credit standards generally unchanged for lending to businesses and consumers based on the modal approach.
Meanwhile, the diffusion index (DI) method showed varied results reflecting a net tightening of credit standards for firms and a net easing of loan standards for households.
Based on the modal approach, results for Q4 2023 indicated that majority of the participant banks, or 88 percent, maintained credit standards for businesses.
The DI approach showed a net tightening of overall credit standards across all borrower firm sizes due to banks’ lower risk tolerance, deterioration of borrowers’ profiles and profitability of banks’ portfolios, along with stricter financial system regulations.
Over the next quarter, both the modal and DI methods indicated respondents’ expectations of generally unchanged credit standards for enterprises amid banks’ sustained tolerance for risk and stable outlook for the overall economy as well as for industries and firms, along with the steady profiles of borrowers.
Q4 2023 SLOS results also showed a higher proportion of respondents that maintained overall credit standards for commercial real estate loans (CRELs).
However, results from the DI method pointed to a net tightening credit standards for CRELs mainly due to a deterioration in borrowers’ profiles and banks’ reduced tolerance for risk.
In the next quarter, a larger number of participating banks anticipate to keep their loan standards for CRELs unchanged based on the modal approach, while the DI-based results show expectations of net tightening credit standards for CRELs.
The majority of the surveyed banks retained their lending standards for household loans in Q4 2023. On the other hand, DI-based results pointed to net easing credit standards for consumer loans mainly associated with the improvement in profitability of banks’ portfolios, higher risk tolerance, and less uncertain economic outlook.
For Q1 2024, modal results showed a higher number of bank respondents anticipating maintained loan standards for households, while the DI approach indicated a continued net easing of credit standards driven by banks’ expectations of improved profitability of their portfolios, higher risk tolerance, and more favorable economic outlook.
Results of the Q4 2023 SLOS revealed a larger percentage of respondent banks that have generally unchanged credit standards for housing loans. The DI results indicated net easing lending standards for housing loans largely due to higher profitability in banks’ portfolios, more desirable borrowers’ profiles, and banks’ increased risk tolerance.
Over the following quarter, most respondent banks anticipate unchanged lending standards for housing loans while the DI results pointed to expectations of net easing in housing loan standards.
In the next quarter, most of the respondent banks expect broadly steady loan demand from businesses. The DI method indicated that participating banks anticipate a net rise in credit demand from businesses for Q1 2024 driven by customers’ more positive economic prospects along with higher customer inventory financing and accounts receivable needs.
A higher percentage of participating banks indicated generally steady loan demand from consumers in Q4 2023 based on the modal approach. The DI method, however, pointed to a net increase in consumer loan demand across all major loan categories due to higher household consumption and banks’ more attractive financing terms.
For Q1 2024, about half of the bank respondents expect higher demand for credit from households (50.0 percent) using the modal approach. The DI approach also pointed to a net increase in consumer loan demand driven by expectations of higher household consumption and housing investment, banks’ more attractive financing terms, and lower income prospects.
