THE country may have only 16 to 19 typhoons this year, fewer than the average 19 to 20 cyclones that visit the country yearly, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said yesterday.
Ana Liza Solis, PAGASA assistant weather services chief and spokesperson, also said that despite the warmer temperature, the dry season has yet to officially start.
Solis also said this year will be less warm than 2024 when the country experienced El Nino.
“For the whole year, we are predicting around 16 to 19 typhoons this year, which is below average,” Solis said in mixed Filipino and English in a briefing in Malacañang.
She said the below-average number of typhoons was based on regular or average climatological data, as well as historical data that showed a downtrend in the average number of typhoons – if there was no El Niño and La Niña.
“If we consider the trend in the number of typhoons per year in the past 65 years, there is a decreasing trend which is why we only projected 16 to 19 typhoons,” she said.
Solis also said while people are starting to experience warmer weather nowadays, the public can expect a less intense dry season this year.
She said the average temperature could go up to as high as 39.6 to 39.8 degrees Celsius, which may even happen in May.
Solis also said that the official dry season, also referred to as summer, has yet to be declared because rain-inducing weather systems like the shear line, northeast monsoon, and easterlies, continue to be present in some parts of the country.
Solis also said that while a heat index of 45 degrees was felt in Metro Manila in the past days — higher even in some provinces — it will not be as extreme as in 2024, which caused the cancellation of face to face classes.
PAGASA said the heat index, which measures how the human body perceives heat from the actual temperature, is classified at “danger” level if it goes above 42 degrees.
“For now, we have not predicted that the maximum daytime temperature would reach 40, but the 52 degrees heat index last year is still possible but only for an instant. It would not be widespread,” she said.
PAGASA said in a bulletin no area experienced a danger level heat index yesterday.
The highest heat index yesterday was 41 degrees, which is classified as “extreme caution” level, recorded in Zamboanga City in Zamboanga del Sur, Catbalogan City in Western Samar, and Masbate City in Masbate. – With Victor Reyes
