‘I suspect that the stalling of China’s growth trajectory will end soon and soon she will indeed surpass the USA to become the biggest economy in the world.’
A FEW years back, it was widely believed that by the early 21st century the Chinese economy would surpass the US economy and become the largest in the world.
The “prediction” was based on double-digit growth in the Chinese economy triggered by Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms and the special economic zones that sprung on the mainland.
“Capitalism with Chinese characteristics” became the description of the new economic policies being promoted by the Communist Party of China, and to explain the embrace of a Hong Kong that operated under a different set of principles it was “One country, two systems.”
Very quickly, China became the factory of the world.
But as the 20th century turned 1 or the 21st, China’s growth engine began to cool down. The real estate boom soon turned into one big bust, and before long the central government had to scramble to save some of the biggest real estate firms from going under.
The financial system was shaken, and so was the Party. For the most paranoid there was the specter of the economic hardships that triggered the fall of the Berlin Wall, or the popular unrest that swept through the Middle East, toppling long-ruling governments.
As a result, China has yet to surpass the United States economy-wise. Population-wise, it has been overtaken by India (which may not be a bad thing anyway). However, she remains the power to contend with and that every country in North and Southeast Asia has to deal with, like it or not. The Americans may deploy a carrier task force or two in the region, but the supply lines would be long and when it comes to a massive invasion by the People’s Liberation Army, pray tell how can you stop that short of the nuclear option?
I suspect that the stalling of China’s growth trajectory will end soon and soon she will indeed surpass the USA to become the biggest economy in the world. More and more, people the world over have to deal with a product either made or assembled in China for a Chinese brand or one that carries a luxury Western brand label but is assembled in China.
In the case of electric vehicles, for example, Tesla (owned by Elon Musk) has seen its dominance of the Chinese (and global) market being ended by the Chinese manufacturers. BYD is now outselling Tesla globally, and for many competitive advantage reasons, China may no longer cede that leadership back to any Western operation.
China has even produced aircraft to rival those of Boeing and Airbus although the Chinese-made planes may have a hard time getting international certification from Western-influenced (if not controlled) agencies whose job is to certify an aircraft as airworthy. Once certified it may not be unreasonable to expect that Airbus and Boeing may be relegated to second and third spot soon.
Will China be ascendant again any time soon? When is a guess anyone can make but we can all safely assume that Xi Jinping is going to take advantage of every misstep the Americans will make in Asia, Africa and even Europe to stamp his country’s mark on the world stage.
So learn Mandarin if you can, and start saving the Chinese yuan!
