A woman checks her mobile phone near screens displaying the Hang Seng stock index and stock prices outside the Exchange Square in Hong Kong, China.  (Reuters Photo)

SYDNEY- Asian stocks dithered and the dollar slipped on Monday in a week that is almost certain to see the start of an easing cycle in the United States with investors flirting with the chance of an outsized move.

Central banks in Japan and the UK also meet this week, with both expected to stand pat for now, while a packed data schedule includes US retail sales and industrial production.

Geopolitics loomed large as ever with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump the subject of a second assassination attempt on Sunday according to the FBI.

Holidays in China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia made for thin conditions and early moves were modest. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.3 percent, after bouncing 0.8 percent last week.

Japan’s Nikkei was shut but futures traded at 36,315 compared to a cash close of 36,581 as recent yen gains pressured exporters. S&P 500 futures were little changed, while Nasdaq futures dipped 0.1 percent.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.2 percent and FTSE futures 0.1 percent. DAX futures also firmed 0.1 percent.

Economic data from China over the weekend disappointed as industrial output growth slowed to a five-month low in August, while retail sales and new home prices weakened further.

“The data bolsters the case for additional economic stimulus by year-end if China wants to achieve its target of around 5 percent growth in 2024,” said Vivek Dhar, a mining & energy analyst at CBA.

“We think policymakers will look to boost central government spending on infrastructure projects if both China’s property and infrastructure sectors sink again in September.”

As for the Federal Reserve, futures rallied early to push the chance of a half-point cut to 59 percent, against 30 percent a week ago. The odds have narrowed sharply after media reports revived the prospect of a more aggressive easing.

“We agree it is likely to be a close call, but we also believe the Fed will make the ‘right’ move and go 50bp,” said JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli.