‘…should things turn out the way surveys seem to indicate they will, then a post mortem might have to include asking the question of whether a logical choice should early on be far more determined and decisive than what we saw this year.’
HAPPY birthday to a very good and dear friend, Atty. Ariel Salvador Hinal Magno. A great basketball player who was not blessed with enough inches, an excellent lawyer with clear principles who has chosen private practice to public service, a fellow UP Maroons supporter with whom I served on the PBA Board of Governors (he represented the Sta. Lucia Realtors), Atty. Ariel is one of a handful of friends from UP High School, PoliSci and Law school whose counsel I cherish.
Ariel is also a keen political observer although our points of view sometimes diverge. What follows is my opinion alone, of course.
A year or two ago when political types were beginning to focus on May 2022 and the looming presidential elections, it wasn’t clear to anyone who would be leading the opposition slate and who would be the administration’s bet. There was a lot of talk of PRRD himself running for vice president while a trusted ally like Bong Go or daughter Mayora Sara took top spot, the way Putin and Medvedev traded places in Russia a few years back.
Of course, there was Bongbong Marcos, still smarting over what he feels was a stolen election. Beyond these names, there seemed no one else who was a viable administration bet.
For the opposition, I always insisted that the Vice President was the logical choice. She was the highest-ranking public official who was not part of the ruling clique, and being one heartbeat away from the presidency was perhaps the best vantage point for anyone wishing to prepare for the presidency. I remember writing not just once that the nomination should be hers to claim just by saying she wanted to run, and everyone else had to give way — or appear like a spoiler.
In my mind I was imagining a one-on-one either between Mayora Sara and VP Leni or, even more dramatic, a rematch between Marcos and Robredo.
Shades of 1986.
But the logical choice to me didn’t seem so logical to others. In part, I suspect it was because the VP herself was unsure (as she had, I think, admitted publicly) whether she wanted to put herself and her daughters through another political circus. Sometimes in politics that hesitancy can be an unintended come-on for supporters; how many times has it been said that the best politician is the reluctant one?
But sometimes too the hesitation can be, well, almost fatal. Especially when there are others wishing to claim the mantle of leadership of the opposition, or at least leadership of an alternative proposition.
Which is very often what is the case here, in a country where we very, very rarely just have two candidates fighting it out for the presidency — 1981 and 1986 being the last two times this ever happened.
I guess this explains why we are where we are now: “opposition” votes being scattered between and among four candidates while “administration” sympathizers gelling behind just one. Six years ago, at around this time the reputable survey firms noticed a considerable shift in support from the erstwhile survey leader to a dark horse, made possible because the voting public was so divided and no candidate ever polled above 40%.
This time it seems very different.
It’s still maybe six weeks from Judgment Day and six weeks can be a long time. But should things turn out the way surveys seem to indicate they will, then a post mortem might have to include asking the question of whether a logical choice should early on be far more determined and decisive than what we saw this year.
