By: Atty. Noel M. Baga
The recent US pivot toward fossil fuels under the Trump administration presents both challenges and strategic opportunities for the Philippines’ renewable energy ecosystem. At the Renewable Energy Forum hosted by the Asia CEO Forum, energy sector stakeholders convened to assess the implications of this policy reversal and chart a path forward for Philippine energy sovereignty.
Since taking office in January 2025, the Trump administration has systematically dismantled renewable energy support mechanisms while aggressively expanding fossil fuel production through a series of executive actions. The declaration of a “National Energy Emergency” has accelerated fossil fuel development permits, reopened federal lands for extraction, restarted LNG export terminal approvals, revitalized coal production, eliminated renewable tax credits, and effectively halted offshore wind development. Perhaps most consequentially, Congress has eliminated methane emissions fees for oil and gas producers—a critical environmental safeguard.
These policy reversals have already constricted renewable energy capital flows within the United States, with downstream effects for international renewable investments, including those targeting Southeast Asian markets.
Despite these headwinds, the Philippine renewable energy sector demonstrates remarkable resilience. The country maintains its position as the second most attractive emerging market for renewable investments globally—a testament to its robust policy framework, substantial resource potential, and growing demand. Forum participants expressed confidence that capital market disruptions in the US would be offset by increased investment flows from the European Union, BRICS nations, and the United Kingdom.
This reconfiguration of global energy investment presents a strategic opportunity for the Philippines to position itself as a renewable energy hub for the Asia-Pacific region. The consensus among industry leaders indicates that Philippine renewable markets have achieved sufficient maturity to operate independently of US policy fluctuations, provided domestic policies remain stable and supportive.
The Philippine energy landscape must navigate a delicate balance between immediate reliability concerns and long-term sustainability goals. As the Center for Energy Research and Policy (CERP) has articulated, energy security demands a diverse portfolio approach that incorporates both renewable and conventional sources during this transition period.
The country continues to face critical challenges in maintaining sufficient baseload power, with grid alerts highlighting urgent infrastructure modernization needs. It is imperative to recognize that the Philippines cannot hastily abandon fossil fuels. The projected growth in energy demand will require significant capacity additions across all energy sources. New investments in both fossil fuel and renewable energy infrastructure will be necessary to ensure energy security and economic development. The Philippines needs all forms of energy to meet both present and future demands while fueling industrial growth and improving quality of life for all Filipinos.
Moreover, the natural gas sector will likely experience significant growth due to increased US LNG exports and the recent enactment of the Philippine Natural Gas Industry Development Act (RA 12120). This development, while expanding fossil fuel infrastructure, provides a lower-carbon bridge to support grid stability during the renewable transition and represents a necessary complement to intermittent renewable sources.
To capitalize on this pivotal moment, the Philippines must pursue three strategic imperatives:
First, policy stability must be maintained with unwavering commitment to renewable energy incentives, regardless of US policy reversals. Regulatory certainty remains the cornerstone of investor confidence.
Second, financial institutions must expand credit facilities specifically designed for small and medium renewable enterprises, which face higher capital barriers but drive distributed generation innovation.
Third, technological innovation must accelerate to improve efficiency and reduce costs across the renewable value chain. This requires targeted R&D investment and streamlined partnerships with international technology providers.
The US policy shift toward fossil fuels challenges the global renewable energy landscape but simultaneously creates strategic opportunities for the Philippines to assert leadership in the regional energy transition. By maintaining policy stability, expanding financing mechanisms, and driving technological advancement, the Philippines can navigate this energy crossroads successfully.
Energy security and sustainability need not be competing priorities. Through a measured transition that balances immediate reliability needs with long-term decarbonization goals, the Philippines can build a resilient energy system that powers economic development while advancing climate objectives. This is not merely an environmental imperative but an economic and national security priority that transcends geopolitical shifts in energy policy abroad.
This opinion piece reflects the views of the Center for Energy Research and Policy (CERP), an independent think tank dedicated to advancing sustainable energy solutions for the Philippines.
