Sunday, September 14, 2025

A new surge?

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‘…guard your health, COVID or no COVID. But because the virus is still lurking out there, we should be doubly careful.’

I’VE been watching, with a little concern, the daily updates from the Department of Health regarding daily COVID-19 cases and R-naught numbers that I think is now above 2. This number indicates how many persons one infected person infects. It should ideally be less than one – which means the pandemic is dying away (or becoming dormant), but once that number goes above 1, then it means the virus is spreading again.

I don’t really concern myself much with the daily cases – because this number could be grossly under-reported, as it seems to have been a couple of times in the past. And there are many reasons for that – lack of testing, for one (despite all the czars we used to have), or an actual desire not to report bad numbers (shades of the fatality count during Yolanda).

This type of massaging of numbers is not a monopoly of any one administration.

At the same time, I also look out for numbers showing hospitalizations (and deaths). In my book, even if case numbers shoot up, if hospitalizations and deaths do not shoot up at the same rate then there’s a silver lining there. It may mean that even though the virus is spreading, it is hitting people “mildly.”

And if this is the case there can be many reasons, such as vaccination and boosters.

Though I think our booster numbers aren’t good – again despite having so many czars who were supposed to get this done. (Did we even hit our target of 75% vaccinated at the end of 2021? I don’t think so.)

As I write this, I get a text message from a friend, a former UP Maroon and PBA player, telling me he just tested positive. Mild symptoms, thankfully.

Bottomline, it’s no time to relax. Other countries like the United States and Thailand are removing mask mandates, as is the Republic of Cebu. Maybe that’s not wise to do yet – though frankly, out on the streets, I think the risks are less than when you’re inside a closed space, like a meeting room.

And all those vaccines that are supposed to be expiring soon? Can they be made boosters for those who want them? I suspect that so many people made so much money by taking advantage of this pandemic and cornering the supply of essentials like masks and face shields and vaccines – so let’s at least use the vaccines while we can to benefit in a little way from the bonanza of others.

Stay safe. Keep your guard up. And guard your health, COVID or no COVID. But because the virus is still lurking out there, we should be doubly careful.

The “all clear” cannot be sounded yet lest a new surge come upon us.

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