‘Our unpreparedness is not merely a matter of insufficient funds but a systemic failure.’
THIS week’s 8.8 magnitude quake off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, while distant, should reverberate as a profound warning across our archipelago.
In the past five years, devastating earthquakes have relentlessly jolted our neighbors – Myanmar and Thailand last March, Japan in January 2024, and Indonesia in November 2022.
These are not isolated incidents but sober warnings that the Big One is fast closing in.
Our nation, positioned on the fiery rim of the Pacific’s “Ring of Fire,” is no stranger to seismic activity. We still bear the scars of colossal quakes like the 1976 Moro Gulf catastrophe and the 1990 Luzon earthquake.
But despite this history and dire warnings from our neighbors, the Philippines appears woefully unprepared.
Seismological projections by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) predict a Big One of 7.2 magnitude, triggered by a substantial shift in the West Valley Fault that could unleash an unprecedented catastrophe.
This fault line, slashing through seven cities and four provinces, last danced the cha-cha in 1658 and, by expert reckoning, is overdue for another wild twirl.
Studies estimate that the Big One could topple or severely damage nearly half of all residential structures and up to 35 percent of public buildings in Metro Manila. The immediate aftermath could see 114,000 injuries and 34,000 deaths within the first hour alone.
Imagine Metro Manila cleaved into four isolated zones by fires, collapsed structures, and impassable roads. The western portion, the northern cities of Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas, and Valenzuela, the southern expanse of Las Piñas, Makati, Muntinlupa, Parañaque, Pasay, Pateros, and Taguig, and the eastern districts of Marikina, Mandaluyong, Pasig, Quezon City, and San Juan – all fragmented and reeling.
If earthquake preparedness were a school subject, our report card would be emblazoned with a resounding “failed.”
We’ve poured P2 trillion into flood control projects over the last decade, a necessary investment, but one that dwarfs our allocation for comprehensive disaster and risk preparedness for earthquakes and tsunamis.
For 2025, a mere P21 billion has been earmarked for the national disaster risk reduction and management fund, a paltry increase from 2024’s P20.5 billion.
And history has shown us that even these meager funds often morph into presidential “pork barrel” when no major calamity occurs.
Our unpreparedness is not merely a matter of insufficient funds but a systemic failure.
Safety has been sacrificed at the altar of profit, with zoning and building restrictions on quake-prone areas blatantly ignored.
High-rise condominiums and commercial offices pepper the Marikina fault line, a segment of the West Valley Fault, setting up residents and tenants for potential disaster.
True preparedness demands a significant investment in more than just studies and quake drills. We need heavy machinery and equipment – massive tools capable of boring, lifting, crushing, cutting, pulling, and pushing the colossal debris that will inevitably litter our streets.
We need robust land, sea, and air transport systems for real-time evacuation from coastal areas.
Critically, the readiness of our hospital systems, which will be immediately overwhelmed by the injured and dying, needs urgent and thorough review.
The clock is ticking. The eleventh hour is upon us.
The sooner we conclude the search for missing “sabungeros,” get over the stalled impeachment case, move past the trial of former president Rodrigo Duterte in The Hague, and unmask the thieves of our flood control funds, the sooner we can dedicate our collective resolve to the monumental task of preparing for the Big One.
