THE natural algorithm of Philippine politics has been the same for several decades now: presidents win elections or assume power following the replacement of their predecessors in non-constitutionally sanctioned ways. They start off with strong popular mandates, then slowly or swiftly erode their political capital with their failure to meet the masses’ expectations or worse, getting involved in graft and corruption and other moral issues while a huge number of Filipinos wallow in poverty and hunger.
Our recent presidents all underwent such transformation from popular to less popular, with their approval ratings taking a dive. How deep this plunge to the south of the chart depends on whether some of the trust they initially received from the citizenry still remains.
The latest news is that public approval of and trust in President Marcos Jr., Vice President Sara Duterte, and other national government officials and agencies have suffered a significant hit.
‘It is worthy to vet the organizations doing the surveys… Are they asking the right questions?’
Publicus Asia’s Pahayag 2024 First Quarter survey, a non-commissioned survey conducted from March 14 to 18, showed Marcos and Duterte’s approval ratings plummeted to their lowest levels since the third quarter of 2022 — from 58% for the fourth quarter of 2023 to 44% for the first quarter of 2024 for the President and from 59% to 53% for the VP. The lower numbers were due to the public’s growing concerns regarding issues such as inflation, corruption and perceived weak leadership, Publicus Asia noted.
Mindanao is Duterte country and people expect Marcos to take a beating there. In fact, he suffered his biggest drop in approval rating to 36 from 62%, with disapproval rising to 30 from 13%. This is a result of the recent parting of ways of the Marcos-Martin Romualdez camp and the Dutertes. What is surprising is that Bongbong lost points even in his bailiwick of North-Central Luzon, where his approval rating dropped to 52% from 62%. In South Luzon, his approval rating dropped to 43% from 55%, and in the Visayas, to 40% from 57%.
As regards the VP, Duterte’s ratings drop was most notable in South-Luzon (40% from 51%), North-Central Luzon (47% from 56%), and the National Capital Region (NCR), to 47% from 52%. The NCR recorded the highest disapproval for Duterte at 34%. This downside may be offset by the solid trust given by the public to the Department of Education.
Senate President Juan Miguel Zubiri’s approval rating dipped to 42% from 47%, with declines particularly notable in the NCR (45% to 38%), North-Central Luzon (45% to 39%), South Luzon (39% to 47%) and Mindanao (51% to 47%).
House Speaker Martin Romualdez’ approval rating also took a big hit, sliding to 25% from 36%, the poll showed. Of particular concern, Mindanao recorded the highest disapproval rating at 39%, closely followed by the Visayas at 37%, where Romualdez represents Leyte’s first district.
Trust and approval/disapproval ratings are often gauged by gut issues being encountered by the people in everyday life. These include high prices of food, transportation, unemployment, inflation, peace and order, and public health problems. Government officials are rated on the way they render service on these matters.
Surveys are efficient validation tools in knowing the real score in mass acceptance or rejection of national government policies, most especially those which relate to the economy. Numbers are a good indication of mass sentiment, and better if results are compared with those taken some months back.
It is worthy to vet the organizations doing the surveys. Are they reliable and unbiased? Are they asking the right questions? Are the statistical computations correct and the analysis of the results reliable? In this day and age of fake news and data manipulation, it pays to question most things in the area of information dissemination, lest one is waylaid by propaganda.
