PRESIDENT Marcos Jr disclosed his administration’s 10-year roadmap on job creation at the recent National Employment Summit in Manila. The strategic plan is called Trabaho Para sa Bayan and it calls for the creation of 3 million jobs by 2028.
This ambitious plan was crafted by the Marcos Cabinet, with the active participation of the President’s economic team and officials of the Department of Labor and Employment, Department of Trade and, Industry and National Economic Development Authority. All these officials concurred with Marcos that this objective is achievable.
It may be so, but the numbers we are getting from inside sources such as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and outside sources such as the Oxford Economics look bleak, and so Bongbong Marcos, Frederick “Deck” Go and Arsenio “Arsi” Balisacan have a mountain of work ahead of them to create the target of 3 million jobs, which can be realized under a robust economy.
‘We are afraid that the President is relying too much on these economic plans that were made by his economic managers in the comfort of their air-conditioned offices…’
Based on the BSP’s latest Business Expectations Survey (BES), the business confidence index for the third quarter or the months of July, August and September dropped to 43.7% from 48.1% in the first quarter BES results. For the next 12 months, business outlook was also less optimistic with an overall CI of 56.5 percent versus 60.8 percent in the previous survey.
Going forward, businessmen are expecting a weaker peso, higher inflation and interest rates in the remaining two quarters. The BSP surveyed 1,526 firms nationwide, of which 582 companies are in the National Capital Region and 944 in the provinces, and validated the firms’ expectation of tight financial conditions and credit access.
Problems noted by the business sector were softer demand for goods and services such as personal care, health and other consumer products, construction supplies, city hotels and restaurants, and manpower services; ongoing international conflicts that may push oil prices higher; slowdown in business activity due to El Niño-induced extreme weather conditions; and persistent inflationary pressures that may weigh down consumer spending.
Meanwhile, Oxford Economics noted that high consumer prices and slowing economic expansion are exerting pressure on Filipinos to hold back on spending, resulting in the lowest private consumption growth rate since 2010 during a non-pandemic period, according to the think tank Oxford Economics.
“The main culprit is worsening confidence, which has been hit particularly hard by persistent inflation. Although inflation should subside later in the year, the impact on consumer sentiment will take time to feed through, so we don’t expect a substantial boost in spending this year,” Oxford Economics economist Makoto Tsuchiya said in a June 26 report. Citing the BSP quarterly consumer expectations survey, Tsuchiya noted that consumer confidence and outlook have worsened since mid-2022 when the economy reopened from stringent pandemic restrictions.
Tsuchiya pointed to Filipino consumers across different income brackets tightening their wallets as they anticipated “worsening economic conditions.” The nature of recent food-driven inflation also has implications for confidence, as households tend to feel the price impact from non-discretionary daily items more acutely, he noted.
To counter these negative developments, Marcos said they are collaborating with all stakeholders, including the public and private sectors, in a whole-of-nation approach to creating 3 million quality jobs by 2028. He cited the Trabaho Para sa Bayan as the overall plan to achieve this objective, along with the “strategies stated in the Philippine Development Plan, the Philippine Labor and Employment Plan, the Strategic Investment Priority Plan, and the Workforce Development Plan.”
We are afraid that the President is relying too much on these economic plans that were made by his economic managers in the comfort of their air-conditioned offices, but when you go out in the field to physically feel the real situation – as validated by the studies and surveys conducted by the BSP, Oxford Economics and other entities – the assumptions in these development plans are untenable.
