‘It’s still an election that is up for grabs, and if recent electoral history is to be our guide, the situation may only begin to clear by mid-March of next year, a scant 60 days (even less) before Election Day.’
HOW many of the over 60 million Filipinos who are eligible to cast their votes in May 2022 have already made up their minds is anybody’s guess. I would hazard to guess that from 30-40%, or 18-24 million, more or less have already fixed their gaze on one of the declared candidates for President — with the exception of Sen. Bato dela Rosa, to be honest; another 20-30% (or 12-18 million) are leaning towards one or the other (again with the exception of Sen. Bato) but may still change their minds, while the balance of a high of 50% to a low of 30% have not even thought about who to vote for (again excepting Sen. Bato) and/or may be awaiting some special “incentive” from a candidate (this time, including Sen. Bato).
It’s still an election that is up for grabs, and if recent electoral history is to be our guide the situation may only begin to clear by mid-March of next year, a scant 60 days (even less) before Election Day.
This only means that a lot of work needs to be done, still, once the final, final, final deadline of November 15 comes and goes and we truly know who is up against whom for which position. We have heard of late that Lakas is considering fielding Sen. Bong Revilla for president if Mayora Sara sticks to her guns and stays out of the race, but, like the case of Sen. Bato being the standard bearer of PDP-Laban, you need not lose sleep over that prospect. I suspect that, in the end, Lakas will throw its support behind whoever becomes the admin candidate (official or otherwise) and from the looks of it there are only two possibilities without the Mayora in the race: former senator Bongbong Marcos, and Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso. In that particular order.
For the anti-Duterte opposition, a lot of work remains to be done to harness a broad coalition behind VP Leni Robredo, whose late decision to file is seen by some as a stroke of genius and by others as a strategic misstep. By broad coalition I mean something beyond the “Yellow Army,” and the reason is obvious: without an Aquino at the head of the ticket, the Yellow Army becomes rudderless. And it can’t be just any Aquino — it has to be someone from the immediate family. As proven by the fact that even distinguished senator Bam Aquino — who looks more like Ninoy than even PNoy ever did — couldn’t survive the onslaught of the DDS army during the last elections.
For Sen. Manny Pacquiao, this means having to hone his message of a poor boy having made it good through sheer hard work — actually the same story that Mayor Isko can peddle, with some similarities. Both used their God-given talents to succeed, necessitating even having to strip for the viewers. But there the similarities end. And today one is the richest senator (with the exception of Sen. Cynthia Villar) while the other is the richest middle-class politician I know.
Who between them gets more of the votes from the D-E segments of our population will have a leg up versus the rest of the field. And in my book it remains a toss-up.
For Sen. Ping, I think the way he can win — perhaps the only way? — is to convince those who voted for Duterte on the basis of his law and order appeal that he is the “kinder and gentler” alternative — a tough cop who respects the limits of the law. Trust me, there are still many Filipinos who worry about their safety and security, and having millions become jobless due to the pandemic actually raises worries that desperate measures may be resorted to by the desperate.
Finally, for former senator Marcos, the social media noise about the “hidden wealth” and the excesses of his father’s term (particularly from 1972-1986) may provide the biggest drag on his candidacy. But how much of this moxie actually resonates with voters who were born long after 1986? He may in fact choose to write off my generation of voters and simply target the millennials and the post-millennial generation to whom, as I always point out, Martial Law is as distant as the Japanese occupation was to me and my generation.
And I know how the Japanese occupation was such a sensitive and emotional issue to my father’s generation. But did mine care? Not really, no, especially not after Hello Kitty.
As the current survey leader, BBM just needs to make sure his numbers do not slide such that his initials begin to mean “Best Before May.”
Remember history — “early birds” oftentimes eventually lose. While the winner is someone lurking in the shadows at the start, someone who is able to win the hearts and minds of the undecideds convincingly enough that the final result is another unexpected one.
Then again, maybe that’s Sen. Bato!!!??
