‘… if she means what she has said in her declaration at noon yesterday, then this may be the best way for her to demonstrate how serious she is in accepting the “Let Leni Lead” challenge…’
YESTERDAY, part of my socmed world was all agog with the build-up to the announcement by Vice President Leni Robredo that she was seeking the presidency. I watched the speech, and thought it was good, except that she should have said a few lines — ideally the same line, like the “buo ang loob ko na mananalo tayo” (or something to this effect) — in Visayan, in Bikolano, and in Ilokano. That she didn’t, and spoke mainly in Filipino (I think the word “Imagine” was the only English word I caught) was, in my book, a missed opportunity.
Anyway, there will be many more opportunities ahead to demonstrate a more inclusive and truly national campaign.
After her remarks I signed off and returned my focus to working (albeit from home). But I kept checking my apps on a regular basis, and in one chat group I saw someone ask: “Was there excitement like this with Mar in 2016?” I also checked in on another chat and there I noticed that pro-Leni individuals were sharing a hashtag #WithdrawIsko in an attempt to force the Manila mayor out of the race. By their calculation, his voters are their voters and
if he withdraws then Leni would be the main beneficiary.
And later on in the day I espied one alert that the Vice President had filed her certificate of candidacy as an independent, which can be read in many ways, some flattering, others not quite so. Before that, it was announced that Sen. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan was going to be her running mate, and some people were engaged in asking how “Ate Shawie” and her aunt Helen Gamboa (the better half of Senate President and fellow vice-presidential candidate Tito Sotto) would handle this “rivalry” between their spouses.
Finally, there were those who were chortling that branding the Leni campaign a “Dilawan” effort was a passe term, given that the proper tag was “Anak ng fuschia.” Filipinos can always find something to joke about even when politics is concerned, and why not? Many of those involved in our politics are jokes — but the joke is on all of us voters eventually.
Now that the Vice President has thrown her hat into the ring and the battle is joined, what next?
First, there are still some quarters wondering, waiting, and even hoping that Presidential daughter and Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio will, at the last minute, decide to throw her own hat into the ring. When asked what I think she would do I admit that I have no clue — just, I am told, like many of those around her. Her previous statements were clear: if her father filed, she wouldn’t, because only one from the family should file. He didn’t — and that is what gives some people a source of hope. More recently, she filed her certificate of candidacy as mayor of Davao and said she intends to finish her three terms before even thinking of running for some other office — and that is what in turn gives some people a sense of dread. There is no doubt that in the big mass of supporters behind President Duterte there are those who are convinced that Mayora Sara is the best bet for the presidency — or even for the vice presidency, while there also are others who prefer Sen. Bong Go, the President’s longtime man Friday, who in fact filed his certificate of candidacy for the vice presidency, but is widely believed to be a place holder for someone else, most probably a Duterte, and most probably still for the President himself.
But let’s assume Mayora does not file. This makes former senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. the main candidate of the forces behind the administration — a broad coalition of the Duterte camp, the GMA network (that’s the former President, not the TV station!) and, of course, the so-called “Marcos loyalists.” It is a formidable one.
Arrayed against that would be Isko Moreno and Dr. Willie Ong, backed by Aksyon Demokratiko and supported by an array of big businessmen. Without Sara, both Mayor Isko and senator Marcos would be battling it out for the top spot. Interestingly, in 2016, Marcos swept Metro Manila, save Taguig (which, of course, went to hometown boy Alan Cayetano); with Isko in the picture, Metro Manila may no longer be a lock for FM Jr. But Isko will need to fight it out with Marcos throughout Luzon, battle Leni in the Visayas, then engage both in Mindanao.
And then there’s Manny Pacquiao, who is expected to draw votes in Mindanao, perhaps enough to be a spoiler. Sen. Ping Lacson is sure to take vote-rich Cavite but is fighting an uphill battle elsewhere.
And now comes Leni. With “Mr. Sharon Cuneta” by her side.
We have often been warned to be wary of early-in-the-game survey results because no one who has been leading in these early surveys ever really wins. Not Ramos in 1992, not FPJ in 2004 (with a little push from “Hello Garci,” of course), not Manny Villar in 2010, or Grace Poe in 2016. And this warning about what history shows should be comforting news for the Vice President and her campaigners. It’s early days and in many ways it is. As the campaigns hone their messages, as they build alliances down to the local levels, and as their survey numbers change, we will see how dynamic and fluid the situation is — and see who will rise and who will fall. Some campaigns will try to tack the centrist line by being all inclusive and friendly to all, “healing” even, while others may calculate that an all-out attack on the current regime is the way to galvanize the voter base for the turnout needed in May to ensure victory.
None of the candidates are best positioned for the latter type of campaign, except the Vice President herself, although personality-wise she may not be the best suited for it. But if she means what she has said in her declaration at noon yesterday, then this may be the best way for her to demonstrate how serious she is in accepting the “Let Leni Lead” challenge, and showing one and all that she has the determination to do what it takes — short of cheating — to win.
