‘…after all the balloons have fallen and the empty paper cups have been collected, the next President will have to come face to-face with the stark reality that 2022 is going to be the first of six really tough years.’
IN a little over 60 days, a new President of the Philippines will be elected and proclaimed.
He or she will then have a little over 40 days to prepare, before finally taking over the helm of government from President Duterte.
For sure, after the counting is over and done and the last balloon has fallen from the rafters, the hard reality will set it. The Philippines that the next president will inherit in 2022 will be in a far more difficult situation than the Philippines that Cory Aquino inherited in 1986.
In 1986, after the EDSA People Power “revolution,” the Philippines was the darling of a certain segment of the world. American politicians were willing to see Cory dolls on their lapels; European activists were inspired by the idea of mass action against strongmen. And while our economy was struggling, there were so many who were willing to help.
We just didn’t ask that some of our onerous loans be forgiven!
Fast-forward to 2022. The world is reeling from a series of “hits” — the COVID pandemic brought the global economy to a halt, and just when things seemed to be looking upwards Russia decides to invade Ukraine and again the global economy reels from the blow. The war clouds over certain parts of Eastern and Central Europe are not only ominous; the shocks and aftershocks of the moves and countermoves being made by the big economic powers of the world have a ripple effect that goes around the world.
Like in 1986, the Philippines is reeling from all of these. In the last two years the fine economic management of the last four years have become a memory — and the Finance secretary himself has warned that the next government may have to raise taxes to address a ballooning budget crisis.
Unlike in 1986, the rest of the world today is focused on its own woes, domestic as well as international. Unlike in 1986 when so many countries and non-governmental entities were ready, willing, and able to help, today everyone has to worry about matters in his own backyard.
In short, we are on our own.
And so, after all the balloons have fallen and the empty paper cups have been collected, the next President will have to come face-to-face with the stark reality that 2022 is going to be the first of six really tough years. Not only will the new leader have to heal the deep divisions in the country, but parallel to this the economy will have to be set aright through our own efforts.
I cannot think of a challenge for a new leader that is tougher than doing these at the same time.
