‘Today’s election in a way marks the end of the Duterte administration — but maybe not the Duterte era.’
THE nation goes to the polls today. There are some 65 million qualified voters but about 80% are estimated to actually vote. Which means about 53 million votes will be cast, and the nation will be waiting with bated breath to see what the results will be.
If the margin of victory in the presidential and vice-presidential race is what the surveys say it will be, then maybe by Tuesday evening we shall know the answer. But if the margin of victory is razor thin, as it was in 1986 for President (non-automated) and 2016 for Vice President (automated) we may have to wait three or four days before one camp sets off the fireworks.
Today’s election in a way marks the end of the Duterte administration – but maybe not the Duterte era. The latter I characterize as the “counterrevolution” to the 1986 EDSA “Revolution.” And there is a chance that today’s election will show that the counterrevolution has not yet played out.
In 1986 we (I included) massed at EDSA to force a President out of office, while the rest of the country watched. It was quite an undemocratic act of a bunch of people (one million?) who decided to take matters into their own hands, throw out the results of the recently concluded elections and, with the help of Uncle Sam, institute regime change.
The regime did change — but from 1986 to 2016 not much else did for the average Filipino. He still had to earn a daily living wage, worry about healthcare, and housing, and education. He had to laugh at the jokes of politicians and at the politician-jokes. And he had to endure — yes, endure — a succession of leaders who promised a better life; but the improvements have been marginal.
This is why I think in 2016 the mass of people decided they’d had enough of Manila-centric elite politics and rejected everyone but the odd man out — the rough (uncouth?) foul mouthed “siga” who was more like them than the urbane political elites. Did the people go for Duterte because they figured their lives would dramatically change for the better? I suppose many did. But I suppose many also did because it was their chance to “give the finger” to the Manila elites who always talked about them (and for them?) but never walked with them.
I suspect that this is still true today, that masses of Filipinos simply tune out when someone starts to preach to them about good government and honesty and dedication in public service and all, the way they tune out the Sunday sermons of the Catholic priests.
This talk is alien to them because they haven’t seen real and lasting proof of concept; rather, they know that in this country what matters is still making a different kind of connection, whoever is mayor, governor, congressman or president.
“May kakilala ka ba” is the Filipino reality for those living on the edge. It is the elite in Metro Manila who can afford to preach good government.
It was thus with some amusement that I watched the MDA of VP Leni in the heart of the Makati business district, with many of my friends booking rooms at the nearby hotels or worrying about where to park their cars. They came with their kids too young to vote and relatives too sick to stand up. They came from different parts of Metro Manila and even nearby provinces; and some of them were even proud that this was their nth pink rally.
These are my friends who insist that a rally is a better gauge of a political outcome than a scientific survey.
But as they were rallying at Ayala corner Paseo, there was a similar MDA happening at the plaza of my town, a stone’s throw away from my house. Lasting until 11:30 p.m. there were speeches and singing — but no mention at all of anything transpiring outside of our small sleepy town. In fact, not one candidate for mayor is carrying a Presidential candidate — which means the fervor of the Revolution has found no fertile soil here.
And that’s good news for the Counter Revolution.
