‘Will Junior’s strategy hold, or will the other four chip away at the myth Junior has built? Gear up, everyone. We are in for a very, very, turbulent ride.’
WE are less than a week away from the official start of the campaign period, dear millennials and fillennials. Whatever concessions were made before to maintain a veneer of propriety against campaign-related activities will now be out the window, as candidates and their campaign teams will be looking to maximize every possible minute out of the 90-day official period.
While running a national campaign is a challenging and complicated undertaking by itself, campaign teams need to be extra creative these days because of the limitations posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Previously, campaigns were only limited by the stamina of their candidates when it came to on-the-ground events; packing the day with interviews, rallies, caucuses, town halls, and similar engagements were the norm. Crowd size then was king — teams were always on the lookout for the best photos that will show jampacked gyms and standing room-only events when it came to sorties to show the bandwagon effect.
My guess is the more responsible candidates will police their own events, not wanting to be accused of tolerating super-spreader events at a time where Omicron is still prevalent in communities. The ones who don’t really give a rat’s ass will continue to campaign without a care in the world and will most likely try to sell the big crowds as the people’s desire to press flesh with their candidate. This will put local officials in a bind, as they will be the ones left to deal with the aftermath of any super-spreader event once the candidate leaves.
Our TV programs and YouTube viewing will likewise be affected, given that political ads will be more consistent. Candidates with limited resources will most likely have decided to save those resources for airing ads during the official campaign period, where material can be most direct in soliciting votes. Even the Senate race is quite tight, so more senatorial candidates will be jockeying to catch the attention of voters.
Similarly, expect swords to be unsheathed — clashes between candidates are likely to become more direct, as hot copies land on free media more often than cut-and-dried ones.
Those with limited resources for paid media (this refers to air/print space one can buy as advertisements) should already be prepared with a plan to get the most space out of free media to box out other candidates who may not be as sound-bite savvy.
Expect that the volume of fake news will likewise increase and will become more relentless as the days progress. Even the most well-meaning will fall for fake news of some sort, so it will be best if we are all on guard about the information we come across on social media and our chat groups.
A quick look at the latest surveys tells me that Vice President Leni Robredo, Senators Ping Lacson, Manny Pacquiao, and Mayor Isko Moreno will have to work triple-time to increase their preference among voters. All four candidates are polling at the single-digit to the mid-teens range, which means that they will have to have more than the usual strategy to gain ground on the leader of the pack. Presidential debates and interviews will provide considerable value to these four, and again allows voters to listen to them for a longer time than the usual media interview.
On the other hand, the son of deposed dictator Ferdinand Marcos, Marcos Junior, can unfortunately coast along the official campaign period. The name of the game for his team is to preserve and protect his numbers from any outside or self-inflicted cuts — which means that they will probably stick to their tactic of keeping Marcos Junior out of possibly thorny situations (like presidential debates) and only trot him out when they are completely in control of the circumstances. His main weapon will be his paid media assets — he will guard his flank by staying away from contentious issues and situations in order to stay true to his “unity” call.
Will Junior’s strategy hold, or will the other four chip away at the myth Junior has built? Gear up, everyone. We are in for a very, very, turbulent ride.
