‘…no one has been talking about a solid Bicolandia. Which intrigues me, because I have long been told that Bicolanos always rally around their own. But now I am beginning to doubt this…’
IN the heated environment called social media — which seems to be transforming into a medium for anti-social activities — the followers of BBM (I call them the Marcosians) and VP Leni (I call them the Leni-nists) are trading everything from taunts to insults and even, on rare occasions, threats.
I expect more of these as May 9 approaches, and I have to admit that opening my social media apps and checking in on the many chats I am on can depress me at times. From my vantage point I see a country divided, with no clear way for a quick healing.
Maybe unless neither BBM nor Leni win? Hehe. Maybe a Ping victory can hasten the healing?
The two main camps have been using as a basis for their sense of impending victory two very different “proof points.” The Leni-nist Kakampinks point to their well-attended rallies: the latest, the so-called PasigLaban, is said to have brought together some 100-180,000 Filipinos from Pasig and environs. Not necessarily all voters, mind you.
Before Pasig there were other big rallies — in Cavite (80,000?), in Bulacan, in Bacolod and Iloilo. There also was this big rally at QC Circle about a month back, and they’re planning another big one in Makati.
It is good that the Leni-nists are concentrating on NCR. In 2016, despite being the candidate of the administration, VP Leni lost big in NCR, winning not a single LGU. All LGUs, save one (Taguig), went for Bongbong Marcos, with the only holdout going for its favorite son, Alan Cayetano.
This time around I expect Taguig to turn “Iskolastican,” together with the City of Manila, of course. Quezon City, I am told, may or may not go for VP; if it does then BBM would have lost two more LGUs (Manila plus QC) but if the non-BBM votes get scattered among his rivals then he is still up.
On the other hand, the Marcosians I know say they can smell victory in the air due to the consistent survey results that show their candidate not only ahead of the pack, but way ahead. I still have to see a national survey where he is not polling with anything lower than 45% of the respondents, while his closest rival (usually the VP) struggles to hit 20%. In a one-on-one fight, a 45% poll result will be something to worry about, but when you are up against four other good vote getters with at least two polling double digits, then 45% is good.
Anything above 45% in a field of five or more is a runaway victory.
But surveys are surveys, and many things can happen, like those surveyed may decide they’re too lazy to vote and the results can be closer than we are made to believe. Or, as in Trump-Clinton in 2016, the surveys may miss out on a groundswell that only the vote counting will reveal. But, as one seasoned politician I spoke to said to me recently, “I have not seen anyone poll as consistently as Marcos.”
I guess election day will tell us how accurate or misleading these numbers are.
Given all the back and forth, I was intrigued by the Leni-nist claim that “there is no solid North.” One of those who attended the Pasig rally even held up a sign that said, “If there is a solid North, why am I here?” I can imagine how inspiring that sign must have been for fellow Kakampinks, but we all know the objective answer to that. The term “solid North” does not mean that there won’t be even a single anti-BBM vote in Ilocandia, or ten, or one thousand or even ten thousand. But the anti-BBM votes are still expected to be swamped by the BBM votes.
This led to me ask a question on my FB wall, a dare actually thrown at my Marcosian and Leni-nist friends. The question was simple: “If there is no Solid North, then which Ilocandia province will the pink wave carry? At the same time, if there is no Solid Bicol, then which Bicolandia province will Red and Green carry?”
No one, save one brave soul, dared answer my question. He opined that the Leni-nists will win Isabela, while the Marcosians will win Camarines Norte.
Actually, if you’ve noticed, no one has been talking about a solid Bicolandia. Which intrigues me, because I have long been told that Bicolanos always rally around their own. But now I am beginning to doubt this, again simply because no one has been boasting that Bicol will be solid behind the VP. So yes, maybe Camarines Norte is where the wall will break in Bicol.
But will the Ilocandia wall break in Isabela?
Last night, I decided to text a dear friend from college days born and bred in Isabela. I said, “My Leni-nist friends are excited that VP will win in Isabela!”
And this was his reply: “Win in Isabela?? ASA pa sila. They claim 10K attended the rally in Echague. Assuming the figure is accurate, how many DID NOT ATTEND? HAHAHA” (The capitalized words were his.)
Isabela has about 1,100,000 voters.
Let’s wait and see if the North is still solid. Or if Bicol is as well.
