‘The question is whether the national government can come up with a Bangsamoro policy framework that is as nuanced and balanced as this, with no one among key players happy with what they got, but no one is also left in the cold.’
(I received this paper in my inbox and thought it a well-written piece worth sharing for today. Read carefully. Salamat — no pun intended!)
TO date, Malacanang still has not released the names of the appointees to the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA). President Bongbong Marcos also did not include policy statements on the Bangsamoro Peace Process during his State of the Nation Address or SONA last July 25, 2022.
In the meantime, social media is getting more heated with statements and pronouncements from what has become known as the MILF-Salamat Wing and the MILF of incumbent Chief Minister Murad.
A “political statement of MILF-Salamat wing” dated July 18 and signed by Shaykh AbdulFatah Saleh Delna, the group’s ad hoc chair, said their group, which supported Marcos for President, is “gaining ground in the Bangsamoro region.”
Claiming they are “not a faction or a breakaway group” but MILF members, Delna said they supported the candidacy of Marcos and is urging him to appoint from their ranks new BTA members and ministers of the Bangsamoro region.
Delna said they submitted a list of nominees for the President to appoint as “new members of the BTA, both as Parliamentarians and as Ministers,” claiming they are “all capable and competent to act and perform as Parliamentarians and Ministers.”
Salamat Hashim’s family slams emergence of ‘MILF-Salamat Wing’
The Murad group, on the other hand, accused the Salamat faction of being used by traditional politicians.
The Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s Central Committee condemned what it described as “disinformation” by “misguided MILF members acting at the behest of some traditional politicians” behind the so-called “MILF Salamat Wing” whose motive, it said, is to be appointed to the 80-member Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA).
The statement noted that the “political statement” of Abdulfatah Delna, who claims to be chair of this alleged wing, “is nothing but an unabashed application letter for membership into the BTA, devoid of any revolutionary principles and designed solely to secure personal political favor at the expense of the organization and its leadership.”
“We cannot and will not tolerate such a brazen act” by what the MILF Central Committee’s statement describes as “peace spoilers.”
MILF Central Committee says ‘peace spoilers’ behind ‘MILF Salamat Wing’
Sources close to Malacanang say that Sulu Governor Sakur Tan has been going to the Palace for meetings with top officials of the Marcos government. These meetings are being linked to Governor Tan trying to convince the President to appoint more people who are allies of the local government politicians in BARMM.
There are also reports (unverified) that some of the forces of the MILF (Murad wing) are gearing for the possibility for outbreak of hostilities with the government if they perceive that the national government is going to renege on its commitments under the peace agreement. Again, this is unverified since some analysts think that the leadership of the MILF are either too old or too politically (and economically) entrenched to return to the battlefield. There is, however, little indication that there is a new set of younger MILF members who will call for a renewal of hostilities. It is therefore possible that this is more of “sword-rattling” but should be closely monitored.
What some observers fear more is that the outbreak of hostilities between the factions, especially since both are armed. Again, while this remains not likely in the short term, this needs to be monitored closely.
Crucial to what might happen will be the overall policy approach, framework and implementation of the Marcos government on the Bangsamoro peace process in the next three years.
There are no easy answers given the complexity of the situation. Some scenarios that might be played out:
The “easiest” route for the national government is to abdicate any major shift in policy and just give the next three years to the MILF. Those in the security sector may advise that it is not worth the risk for war to erupt with the MILF, and that letting the MILF rule BARMM until 2025 is the most prudent thing to do.
What might make this difficult to implement is the pressure from the likes of Sakur Tan who are demanding payback for the votes delivered during the last elections.
Malacanang may appease this political force by appointing some of their allies to the BTA, taking seats from the government appointees to the BTA. Malacanang may also ask the MILF to give some of the ministries of BARMM to this bloc. Reports are that the local politicians want the Ministries of Budget and Management, Public Works, and Planning. One should not be surprised why they would want these ministries.
Malacanang might be in a quandary on how to deal with the MILF-Salamat wing. Some say that this group is but a front of Sakur Tan. However, some of the members of this wing are MILF, and that they can rightfully say they should have a seat at the BTA table. They may insist that their seats be taken from the 41 MILF seats in the BTA. If Malacanang does this, the MILF can assert that this is a violation of the terms of the BOL and the peace agreement since it is the position of the MILF that the government only appoint those in the list they submitted.
If the national government decides to let things slide, even say that that the present BTA would stay in office until 2025, or not make “controversial” appointments in the BARMM, those left out in the past three years will continue to be excluded in the political arena of BARMM.
What makes the next three years different, however, is that it is preparatory for the first Parliamentary elections in 2025. Analysts are saying that the MILF will be using the next three years to consolidate its power in BARMM and in the local governments in order to secure a victory in 2025. This is also precisely the reason why the local politicians and other players do not want the MILF to have a free hand in BARMM in the next three years.
This also means that even while the national government may prevent the MILF from escalating the situation to armed conflict, giving the MILF free pass may deepen the horizontal divides in BARMM and therefore lead to more horizontal conflicts in the future.
The other option for the national government is to convince the MILF to give space to the other players, whether in the BTA or by letting go of some of the key ministries in the BARMM government. This means that the MILF will have to accept that the status quo will be different.
Obviously, this will be a hard sell to the MILF. But the national government has at its disposal much of the political, security and economic levers to pull it off. All it needs is to take this road, and make sure that the executive office that implements it has the wherewithal to pull it off.
If the national government decides to “bite the bullet” now, while it is without risks, there are also potential gains. First is that the MILF will learn what it is like to work within a more inclusive, even democratic arena, where they need to work with other political players and not rely on the entitlement platform afforded to them by the peace agreement. The MILF will have to know what it is like to work with groups, build coalitions with other forces to retain a majority, something that they will have to learn anyway in 2025 and beyond.
Secondly, as stated above, those who have been left out politically over the past three years will feel that they have now the space in BARMM, mitigating the risks of such exclusion spilling to actual armed conflict.
The question is whether the national government can come up with a Bangsamoro policy framework that is as nuanced and balanced as this, with no one among key players happy with what they got, but no one is also left in the cold.
