SURVEY firms will surely come under intense scrutiny over their dismal performance in the 2025 mid-term elections.
The results of their surveys did not indicate the potential victories of former senators Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan and party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta.
All surveys in the days leading up to the balloting placed the three candidates outside the winning circle.
Only Aquino was shown knocking at the winner’s door, but not one polling firm indicated that he could stage a phenomenal comeback.
Aquino and Pangilinan are on their way to dealing pollsters their biggest comeuppance by placing a strong second and fifth, respectively.
‘The day of reckoning has come to polling firms, at least in the case of our homegrown Nostradamuses, whose surveys were taken as gospel truth.’
Duterte ally Marcoleta, who had the backing of a religious group, is also rewriting polling history by finishing in sixth place.
The only thing the survey companies got right was that Sen. Bong Go could end up at the top, either as first or second placer.
The bungling of the major survey outfits also extended to their prediction on which group will be the top finishers in the party-list race.
A major polling player said party-lists 4Ps and ACT-CIS will dominate the party-list race, but failed to even notice Akbayan party-list, which now appears as the party-list topnotcher.
Among the excuses coming out from the survey firms is that a crucial shift took place a few days before the elections, where voters had last-minute changes in their preferences that dramatically influenced the outcome.
Pulse Asia said it will review its methodology to capture the millennial and Gen Z vote.
Election surveys have been under constant probe since a leading US pollster gravely erred in predicting the winner of the 1936 US presidential elections.
US-based Polco Survey Research said the reliability of pre-election surveys is declining and there’s no guarantee that voters who were interviewed would go out and vote on election day.
It also said that people may not be completely forthcoming in their answers as “respondents are more likely to give an answer they perceive is more desirable than their giving their own.”
The day of reckoning has come to polling firms, at least in the case of our homegrown Nostradamuses, whose surveys were taken as gospel truth.
While pre-election surveys serve a social purpose in guiding voters and candidates, new methodologies should be explored, coupled with diligent and unbiased analysis to paint a result closer to reality.
