THE conclave to select the late Pope Francis’ successor won’t be announced until after his solemn funeral tomorrow in the Vatican, but already, speculation is well under way. The name of the former archbishop of Manila appears on almost every forecast, including the betting sites.
According to a UK-based bookmaker, Cardinal Jose Luis Tagle and the current Vatican secretary of state, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, are tied with identical 7/4 odds and 36.4 percent “implied probability.” 7/4 odds mean a bet of P4 wins P7, for a total take home of P11. Hence, a P1,000 bet brings home a total of P2,750.
Implied probability is defined as the “likelihood of an outcome actually occurring as implied by the odds.”
According to another UK-based site, Cardinal Parolin, 70, is a 9/4 favorite, with a 31% probability of winning. So far, he commands almost 34 percent of bets on that site.
Running second, with almost 17% of bets, 3/1 odds and 25% implied probability, is Cardinal Tagle, 67, who has occupied key positions in the Vatican since 2019. A P1,000 bet wins P3,000 or a total of P4,000.
‘A Filipino pope could empower and liberate millions of poor Filipinos who often need a champion against
the very oligarchy they elect.’
These odds are expected to change from day to day.
Some people might be taking offense at the fact that something as solemn as papal succession is now the subject of gambling. However, just last week, those of us who observed Good Friday might have read in all the Gospels of how soldiers who crucified Jesus cast lots for his tunic and garments.
While not offering any numbers, CNN has Parolin on top, followed by Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, archbishop of Bologna, Italy — and Tagle. Fourth is another Filipino, Cardinal Pablo Virgilio David, 66, bishop of Kalookan. They are on top of 13 frontrunners the network says “have the skills to be pope.”
But Parolin and Tagle’s names consistently make the forecasts of every major news service — Reuters, AP, Agence France-Presse, BBC.
The New York Times notes Tagle’s “personable approach” as being in line with Pope Francis’ “attention to the poor and those in need in developing countries, where he has lived and worked.”
CNN points out Tagle’s experience as prefect of the Vatican’s department of evangelization in working closely with leaders of churches in the developing world. The network cites Cardinal David’s vision of an inclusive church, “like a ‘field hospital’ for the wounded.”
A Filipino pope could empower and liberate millions of poor Filipinos who often need a champion against the very oligarchy they elect. A Papang Pinoy can also further energize the already fervent Filipino missionary spirit among those who have professed religious vows, as well as ordinary parishioners in countless churches in various continents.
All a future pope needs from the qualified group of elector-cardinals is two-thirds of votes, which is 90 if all the 135 participate in the conclave.
Inasmuch as a kabayan in the Holy See can be very gratifying, we are reminded about a now well-worn cliché about those entering and then leaving the conclave. Already Filipinos can take pride in the inclusion of Cardinals “Chito” and “Ambo” among the “papabili,” a recognition of the respect Filipino Church leaders have earned among their peers that has not gone unnoticed even among the bookmakers.
