IT is good that the House committee on agriculture invited officials of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to brief them on details of the El Niño phenomenon that has started to ravage large areas in the country already.
Last Wednesday, PAGASA’s Climatology and Agrometeorology Division officer-in-charge Ana Liza Solis reported that 25 areas in Luzon and five in the Visayas may experience drought by the end of March.
Solis said places that have experienced below normal rainfall conditions or greater than 60 percent reduction from average rainfall over the past months, particularly from October 2023 to February 2024, may be considered as being in the drought list.
In Luzon, these areas are Metro Manila, Abra, Apayao, Aurora, Bataan, Benguet, Cagayan, Cavite, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Kalinga, La Union, Laguna, Mountain Province, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, Pangasinan, Quirino, Rizal and Zambales. No wonder, Bulalacao town in Oriental Mindoro has already declared a state of emergency because of the drought.
In the Visayas, drought may hit Antique, Guimaras, Iloilo, Leyte, and Negros Occidental, Solid added.
‘… it is always right to depend on science to guide our officials in arriving at the correct coping mechanism.’
Aside from drought, she added that “dry condition,” or two consecutive months of below-average rainfall conditions, may prevail in 16 provinces and areas nationwide, while a “dry spell,” or three consecutive months below regular rainfall occurrences, is expected in 24 areas across the country.
The provinces that would likely experience “dry condition” by the end of March are as follows: Albay, Batanes, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Marinduque, Quezon, Romblon, Sorsogon, Aklan, Northern Samar, Agusan del Norte, Bukidnon, Dinagat Islands, Lanao del sur, Surigao del Norte, and Surigao del Sur.
Dry spell, meanwhile, could hit Batangas, Bulacan, Camarines Norte, Masbate, Pampanga, Tarlac, Biliran, Bohol, Capiz, Cebu, Eastern Samar, Negros Oriental, Samar, Siquijor, Southern Leyte, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga Sibugay.
This forecast, as in other scientific monitoring efforts, may change over time, with more areas possibly joining the original list, Solis said.
The Department of Agriculture said the dry spell’s damage to the crop sector has spiked to P357.4 million from P151.3 million as of February 24. The phenomenon has affected 7,668 farmers in the Ilocos, Mimaropa, Western Visayas, and Zamboanga Peninsula regions.
People living these areas will first notice the onset of El Niño when their taps go dry as water concessionaires deliberately reduce water pressure for household use, a prelude to water rationing or revolving water interruptions. Then, there’s the extra high daytime temperature, and of course, the impending increases in the prices of rice and other food stuff, with supply depleted by crop failures because of the drought, among others.
Depending on the severity of the El Niño phenomenon this year, the government might revise its general plan to cope with this disastrous weather emergency, and it is always right to depend on science to guide our officials in arriving at the correct coping mechanism. Let us remember that even if the drought and dry spells are gone, along with the extra strong storms and floods, their effects on the economy would still linger, and more and more Filipinos are bound to suffer.
The nation badly needs to revisit its comprehensive strategy to fight El Niño as its 2024 visit looks like more severe than in 2009 when the weather phenomenon gave us the most devastating super-typhoon called “Ondoy.”