ON the morning of November 4, Tuesday, (evening in Manila), Americans troop to the polls to elect a new president.
If surveys are to be believed, this year’s elections could be the closest in American history. To the dismay of his detractors—and the delight of his fans—former Republican President Donald Trump remains in a neck-and-neck race with Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.
Credit (or discredit depending on your point of view) the rise of populism and the changing face of American politics.
Voter turnout is one of the things that could determine the result of this election. Already, more than 75 million have voted in absentee and early in-person voting. And the total turnout is expected to exceed the (158,429,631 (66 percent) who voted in 2020.
And while American political analysts refuse to admit it, gender and race are also crucial determinants of the outcome. There are more women registered voters than men. As in 2020, more women than men are expected to vote, especially with another woman running against Trump.
As for ethnicity, Asians, Latinos and Black Americans are the force that can tilt traditional “white supremacy.” In 2020, for instance, almost 60 percent of Asian voters submitted ballots. Gen Z voters are also expected to cast their votes, most of them for the first time.
All these factors seem to favor Harris who, in all surveys scored higher than Trump in all these voter groups.
But US elections is determined not just by popular vote. Popular election is meant only to determine who will get the votes of the Electoral College.
What is this Electoral College, how did it come about, and how does it operate?
This system came about when America’s “founding fathers” wrote the US Constitution in 1787 at a convention in Philadelphia. In that convention, the manner of electing the US president was hotly debated. Four times, the delegates rejected proposals for the US Congress to elect the president, and twice to elect the president by direct popular vote.
The Electoral College became the compromise. It is anchored on the “unwritten” democratic and federal principle of “equality of the unequal.”
As a federal republic, the US is composed of “unequal” states. For representation in the central or federal government, the inequality has to be addressed in some measure. And this is evident in how the US Congress and the Electoral College are constituted and how the president is elected.
The US Congress is composed of 435 members of the House of Representatives elected per district in each of the 50 states. Since states vary in population and the number of districts, this constitutes unequal representation. But the Senate is composed of 100 senators—two from each state, hence, equal representation.
The Electoral College is constituted in the same way. The number of electors per state is equal to the number of representatives to the House and the two senators each. Added are the three electors from the District of Columbia (the capital) for a total of 538 electors. A candidate must obtain at least 270 (majority) to win the presidency.
So how does the system operate and how is “equality of the unequal” adhered to in the election of the US president?
If the election of the president is solely based on the popular vote, the large states will always have a commanding advantage and they will likely always determine the outcome of the elections. But by having the electoral vote, the inequality is somehow balanced.
Although the total popular vote nationwide is also obtained, it is not the basis for electing the president. No official tally is made by a federal election agency—only state votes are officially tallied to determine the winner in each state. Thus, it has happened five times that the candidate who got the most popular votes nationwide lost in the electoral vote, the most recent in 2000 (Bush vs. Gore) and 2016 (Trump vs. Clinton).
The Electoral College system somehow negates the advantage of the big states.
But what purpose does the popular election serve if the determinant is the electoral vote of the Electoral College?
Here’s how it works.
When voters in each state vote for a presidential candidate, they are actually voting for his electors (the members of the state’s Electoral College). So, if a candidate wins in a state, it will be his or his party’s electors who will convene to formally cast the electoral vote for him. Thus, what matters to a candidate is winning in states with huge electoral votes first (like California, Texas, New York and Florida) and then chalking up some states with 10 or more electoral votes, plus a few of the smaller states. Needless to say, every electoral vote counts, especially in a close contest.
Because of the well-developed two-party system, most states have traditionally become either Republican or Democratic—and they have always voted the same. There are, however, a few that swing votes, hence they are called the swing states. So, as in past elections, this year’s polls will be decided by the swing states: Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10).
Most political analysts in the US agree that this year’s election is too close to call and can go either Trump’s or Harris’s way. The result may also not be known at once because of some closely contested states.
But I would be bold enough to make a forecast—Harris by a nose or by an unquestionable lead.
Taking into account the traditionally Republican and Democratic states, Harris entered the race with 226 electoral votes and Trump with 219. That left 77 electoral votes for the remaining swing states.
Polls and other factors considered, Harris will win at least in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania which will give her exactly 270 electoral votes. Trump may win in the other four but that will only give him 268.
A not-so-remote possibility is for Harris to take North Carolina (where Trump is ahead by just one percentage point in the surveys) and Nevada (where they are tied). Filipinos make up one percent of registered voters in Nevada and since more Filipinos identify themselves with Democrats than with Republicans, they might yet cast the determining vote.
