ECQ effects to be felt only after 7-10 days — experts
BY JOCELYN MONTEMAYOR and GERARD NAVAL
THE number of new COVID-19 cases in the country may go up to 15,000 a day or even higher despite the recent imposition of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in Metro Manila, an infectious disease expert and government health consultant said yesterday.
This is because the impact of the August 6 to 20 ECQ will be felt likely only after seven to 10 days of its implementation, said Rontgene Solante, chairman of the Adult Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine unit of the San Lazaro Hospital.
“Posible iyan. From 8,000 (before the ECQ) pumalo ng 11,000, so baka mas mataas pa diyan (It’s possible that it would reach 15,000. From 8,000, cases already rose to 11,000, so this might still go up),” he said on radio dzBB.
The Department of Health reported 9,671 new cases yesterday. On Saturday, it reported 11,021 cases and 10,623 cases last Friday.
This developed as experts monitoring the COVID infections said the number of new cases in the Metro Manila or National Capital Region (NCR) rose to a daily average of over 2,000 right before the two-week ECQ was imposed. The independent independent OCTA Research group also said the NCR’s reproduction number increased to 1.80, from 1.56 a week ago.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire on Saturday said the active COVID cases in Metro Manila may go up to 18,000 by the end of September, despite the ECQ, due to the highly contagious Delta variant.
Metro Manila was placed under ECQ to contain the spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant which the Department of Health last week said is now present in all 17 cities and municipalities in the NCR.
Solante and Dr Ted Herbosa, consultant of the National Task Force against COVID-19, said there had been a surge in the recent cases in hospitals and many among them are in their early 30s.
Solante said this was based on his observations at the San Lazaro Hospital while Herbosa based his assessment on cases at the Philippine General Hospital.
Both said that the Delta variant may be behind the rise in cases but full genome sequencing is still being done to be sure.
Solante also said the COVID-19 bed use at the San Lazaro Hospital is up at 60 percent while ICU bed occupancy is at least 80 percent.
He added that based on currently confined patients, senior citizens and those with comorbidity remain the most vulnerable. He said many of those confined are also unvaccinated. He also said the youngest one confined at San Lazaro is 27 years old.
Solante said the most vulnerable to COVID-19 are still senior citizens and the people with comorbidity.
Herbosa said while the country has seen cases rising over 10,000 cases a day in the past days, it is still lower compared to cases in other countries such as Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia which saw a surge in cases due to the Delta variant .
The OCTA Research said based on its latest monitoring report, the seven-day average in Metro Manila is currently at 2,066 cases per day.
“The strong upward trend and level of new cases resembles the situation in March 9 to 15, two weeks before the NCR was placed under ECQ,” it said.
For the period of July 31 to August 6, the NCR saw an average of 1,915 per day. This is higher by 67 percent compared to the 1,149 average cases daily during the period of July 24 to July 30.
The latest climb in cases, OCTA said, is capped by the reported 2,823 new COVID-19 cases on August 7.
“This is the highest number since May 2, when the NCR was under MECQ,” it said.
It said the reproduction number in the NCR is up at 1.80, from 1.56 R naught a week ago while the positivity rate has increased to 14 percent, from 10 percent a week ago.
OCTA said the sharp rise in cases in Metro Manila could be mainly due to the Delta variant.
“The rapid growth rate of cases in the NCR strongly suggests the possibility that the surge is driven by the Delta variant,” said OCTA.
“The steady increase in the reproduction number may be due to the replacement of the Delta variant over the previous dominant variants (i.e. Alpha and Beta),” it added.
And with cases on the rise, the OCTA said hospital bed and ICU bed occupancy has also been increasing.
It said ICU occupancy in the NCR is still in the safe zone at 59 percent but the occupancy has been increasing by an average of 11 per day over the past two weeks.
Similarly, hospital bed occupancy in the NCR is also at a safe zone at 53 percent, but occupancy has increased by 94 per day over the past two weeks.
“With the current trends, ICU occupancy will be above 70 percent in two weeks while COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy will be above 70 percent in three weeks,” said OCTA.
The National Kidney and Transplant Institute (NKTI) said its bed capacity is full.
“Right now, we are in full capacity of our COVID-19 in hospital beds and the five tents, with more than 50 patients at the ER (emergency room),” NKTI executive director Dr Rose Marie Liquete said, adding the hospital has to limit admissions to emergency/urgent/renal cases only.
“Other cases may have to be transferred to other hospitals,” she said.
So far, she said, the Jose Rodriguez Memorial Medical Center, Philippine General Hospital, National Center for Mental Health, and National Children’s Hospital have been accepting their COVID-19 patients.
