HEALTH Secretary Francisco Duque III yesterday said daily cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are projected to go higher in the coming days as areas outside of Metro Manila, the epicenter of the pandemic in the country, mirror the uptrend in the region.
“(There is no) indication that the peak is over. We might still be in the acceleration phase of our surge,” Duque said in a virtual media forum.
“We’re starting to see spikes in neighboring regions (of the National Capital Region) and that is what we have observed,” he added.
Duque said the surge is expected to continue.
The health chief attributed the sharp rise in cases to a combination of factors, including the presence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant.
“It’s possible that this is not just because of Omicron, but a combination of factors, like the holiday surge, increased social mobility. It is a combination of factors, not just one,” said Duque.
On the contrary, the independent OCTA Research said the case surge in the NCR could already be peaking as the region’s reproduction number has already dropped to 4.69 as of January 8, as compared to 6.16 as of January 2.
“A decreasing reproduction number indicates that the trend is slowing down. In past surges, a peak is always preceded by a decreasing reproduction number,” said OCTA fellow Guido David in a social media post.
“There is still uncertainty when the peak might happen. Again, hopefully, sooner than later,” he added.
Duque said the DOH has started observing increase in cases in other regions in Luzon.
“The NCR, Regions 4-A, and 3 and even 1, and 2 are also registering spikes in cases,” said Duque.
The observation was shared by the OCTA Research in saying that January 11 data shows increase in COVID-19 cases in Calabarzon and Central Luzon.
“(There were) 15,445 new cases in the NCR on January 11. This represents 55 percent of the country total, indicating a relative increase in cases outside the NCR. With 5,976 in Calabarzon and 3,102 in Central Luzon, 88 percent of cases were from NCR, III and IV-A,” said David.
On Monday, Duque said the Philippines was already under “critical risk” classification for COVID-19 after the country tallied record-breaking numbers in cases for three straight days, particularly 26,458 on January 8, 28,707 on January 9, and 33,169 on January 10.
Last January 11, the Philippines breached the 3 million mark after recording the first confirmed COVID-19 case last January 30, 2020.
World Health Organization representative to the Philippines Dr. Rabindra Abeyasinghe said the country’s healthcare system is not yet overwhelmed and could still manage the surge in COVID-19 cases until January 27 or 28 under the current alert level.
Abeyasinghe, during the Laging Handa public briefing, said WHO has been closely monitoring the current alert levels implemented in the country, particularly the Alert Level 3 imposed in the National Capital Region and observed a “significant reduction in mobility” since the alert level was heightened this month.He said there has also been a slight reduction in the number of COVID-19 active cases on Tuesday which if it continues could mean “the current alert levels are adequate.”
He also said that there will only be a need to increase the alert levels, and eventually increase the restrictions, if there are signs that the healthcare system is already being overwhelmed but “right now, we don’t see that.”
“Projections are that the Philippines may be able to avert that if even if current trends are continued until about the end of this month, meaning that red line analysis that we have done projects that we can manage the health systems to about the 27th, 28th of January,” he added.
NCR is currently under Alert Level 3 until January 15 along with the provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Cagayan Bataan, Pampanga and Zambales; and the cities if Baguio, Dagupan, Santiago, Angeles, Olongapo, Lucena, Naga, Iloilo, and Lapulapu while the rest of the country is under Alert Level 2.
The Philippines recorded on Wednesday 32,246 new active COVID-19 cases, bringing the total number of active cases to 208,164 cases and the total recorded cases in the country to 3.058 million.
National Task Force against COVID-19 chief implementer and vaccine czar Carlito Galvez Jr. said more people have shifted to self-regulation and on their own, limited their mobility and observed self-isolation or quarantine since the re-imposition of Alert Level 3.
Galvez said efforts to improve the telemedicine and telehealth programs and barangay monitoring and response system is also being done.
He said there have also been more people getting vaccinated or getting their booster shots.
Abeyasinghe said it is too soon to say that the Omicron variant is already the dominant strain in the Philippines given the limited genome sequencing being done by the DOH.
Abeyasinghe, during the Laging Handa public briefing, said that given the exponential increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the country and the high transmissibility of the Omicron variant, it can be expected to overtake the Delta variant as the most dominant.
However, he said the limitation in available genome sequencing samples makes it difficult to conclusively judge that it is now the dominant variant in the whole country.
“We have seen a very small number of sequencing results of the last month, in December, and the last batch of samples was largely from NCR and from returning overseas Filipinos who tested positive and so, it’s not surprising that among the ROFs and also in NCR that we are seeing now, the Delta variant is being displaced by the Omicron variant,” he said.
“To say whether it is the predominant variant in the country, it will soon be so but because we have very few sequencing results from the other regions, it’s difficult to conclusively judge. But it’s not entirely a surprising result, and we believe that in the near future, Omicron will displace Delta variant as the predominant variant as it has done in several other countries,” Abeyasinghe added.
Abeyasinghe likewise said the WHO does not foresee the IHU variant to overtake the Delta or Omicron variants as the dominant strain should it enter the Philippines.
He said WHO is still studying the IHU variant, which has been classified as a “variant under monitoring,” but it has not shown any capacity to dominate in terms of transmission.
He said he does not even see it being classified as a “variant of concern” at this time. — With Jocelyn Montemayor
