THE Department of Health (DOH) and the independent OCTA Research Team yesterday reported a surge in cases in some parts of Central Visayas but dismissed as still premature reports that the region is experiencing a “third wave” of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In a virtual press briefing, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the DOH is “seeing gradual increases after previously showing a decline” in some areas of Central Visayas (Region VII). She did not give specific details.
On the other hand, the OCTA Research, in its latest Monitoring Report, noted that cases in Cebu City and Lapu-Lapu City are on the rise.
OCTA data shows that the reproduction rate in Cebu City is currently at 1.41, while the incidence rate is at 8. Meanwhile, Lapu Lapu City has a reproduction rate of 1.74 and an incidence rate of 8.71.
Both DOH and OCTA said the situation cannot be labeled yet as a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region.
Vergeire said the DOH would verify the numbers submitted by their Central Visayas office. “They have this granularity in their analysis. They saw increases in specific areas of the region,” she said.
OCTA, meanwhile, said seeing an increase in the incidence rate of COVID-19 would be necessary before alarms are sounded.
“Their other indicators are still low to moderate, which means talks of a third wave in Central Visayas are still premature at this time. If the incidence in Cebu City and Lapu Lapu increases above 10, (then) it will be a cause for concern in the area,” said OCTA.
Aside from Central Visayas, OCTA also raised concern over the surge in cases in Mariveles, Bataan.
In its report, the group classified the COVID-19 risk in Mariveles as “very high risk,” noting that on Sunday (July 11) alone, it reported 218 new cases.
The daily average of new cases in the town for the period July 5 to 11 is now at 50, which is 161 percent higher than the previous week’s average.
The rise in cases also caused the reproduction number in Mariveles to increase to a “very high” 2.53, as compared to 1.39 in the previous week.
The incidence rate in Mariveles also went up to a “very high” 35.67 per 100,000 population, while the positivity rate in the municipality is at “moderate risk” of 15 percent.
If the increase in new cases is merely a clustering due to delays in reporting of testing laboratories, OCTA said the data in the next few days will be able to confirm it.
