THE coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation in the country may take a wrong turn if the curve does not flatten by next week, a member of a University of the Philippines research group warned yesterday.
Dr. Guido David of the UP OCTA Research Team said the present reproduction number of 1.02 may reach less than one this week, an indication that the country is finally flattening the curve.
“It should be less than one this (coming) week because it should be quick, flattening the curve isn’t that slow. If it doesn’t flatten by next week, that means we’re on the wrong trend again,” David said in Filipino in a radio interview.
The reproduction number or r-naught is the number of new infections estimated to stem from a single COVID-19 case, while case doubling time is the number of days it takes for the number of cases and deaths to double.
David said a reproduction rate above “1” means that the disease is still expanding while below that number means that it is going down.
He said that the reproduction number was at less than one last week but slightly increased again because of new transmissions.
David, however, said the increase in transmission could only be “short-term” and their group expects the number to go down again to less than one.
“That means that if it doesn’t go down next week, it’s most likely to increase if it doesn’t flatten,” he said, adding: “It doesn’t normally stabilize like that. It’s either going up or it’s going down so we’ll see next week,” he said.
The UP OCTA Research Team earlier predicted that the country could flatten the COVID-19 curve by the end of August or in early September.
It said case doubling time is also improving, although they are still looking at a projected 330,000 to 375,000 cases by the end of September.
Defense Secretary and National Task Force against COVID-19 chairman Delfin Lorenzana said he is optimistic that the curve will already be flat by the end of the month. “Yes, we can,” Lorenzana told reporters on Tuesday night.
In a statement on Monday, the DND public affairs service quoted Lorenzana as telling New Zealand’s new ambassador to the Philippines, Peter Kell, during a virtual call on August 27 that “we hope to flatten the curve sometime in September.”
On Tuesday night, Lorenzana said there the curve will flatten if health protocols are strictly enforced and followed.
Most of the more than 200,000 COVID-19 cases are in Metro Manila which has been placed under a 30-day general community quarantine starting September 1. Local government authorities have vowed to be more aggressive in implementing quarantine protocols in the region.
“What will we do to achieve it? Strictly implement the health protocols and follow the campaign plan developed by the NTF, the PDITR: protect, detect, isolate, treat and reintegrate,” said Lorenzana.
“PDITR contains step by step processes to be done in work areas, homes and transportation to prevent infection and eradicate the COVID virus,” he added.
Lorenzana said the NTF has already disseminated a list of approved measures to prevent the further spread of the disease to businesses, regional task forces and local government units.
WASTE DISPOSAL
The Department of Health (DOH) yesterday warned hospitals, medical facilities, and laboratories against improperly disposing their healthcare wastes saying they stand to lose their licenses to operate if they continue to violate established protocols.
In a virtual press briefing, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said those who are incorrectly disposing healthcare wastes, including used rapid test kits, would be held liable.
“If we are able to determine that you are not disposing your healthcare wastes properly, then there would be accorded sanctions for this. We will issue warnings. If they repeat the violations, we will suspend them, and the final (sanction) would be the revocation of their license… definitely, their licenses will be at risk,” Vergeire said.
The health official said this is because proper healthcare waste disposal is part of the accreditation process for healthcare facilities.
“May I remind all of our healthcare facilities that it is part of your licensing to follow these protocols and requirements for proper disposal of healthcare wastes,” said Vergeire.
Vergeire issued the warning after reports came out regarding used rapid test kits found discarded along M. Dela Fuente street in Sampaloc, Manila on Tuesday night.
According to CCTV footages, the used rapid test kits fell from a garbage bag that is attached to a pedicab.
Vergeire said adhering to existing healthcare waste disposal protocols is necessary as this involves products that can cause harm to others.
“Compared to ordinary wastes, we need to treat these products differently because these things may cause harm to other people,” she said.
“We have policies and protocols for proper disposal of healthcare waste. These are the things we use for our COVID-19 response, such as PPEs, testing or diagnostic kits, and others used by our patients. These are considered as healthcare wastes and they should be treated differently,” she added.
Manila Mayor Isko Moreno warned clinics, laboratories and hospitals in the city to follow proper waste disposal rules.
Moreno said failure of healthcare facilities to comply with proper waste disposal rules would result to charges for violation of Republic Act 6969 or the Toxic Substances and Hazardous and Nuclear Wastes Control Act of 1999, and RA 9003 or the Philippine Ecological Solid Waste Management Act of 2000.
Moreno said investigators from the Manila Police Department and the City Health Office are checking who was responsible for the Sampaloc incident, pointing out that the used test kits would not have ended up in the hands of a scavenger if it was properly disposed off in compliance with protocols.
He hinted that the test kits could have come from private institutions as the six district hospitals in the city are strictly complying with the protocols on how to dispose of their hazardous and infectious wastes, including rapid test kits.
Likewise, he said the city government has already stopped using rapid test kits since July 15 after it purchased several COVID-19 serology testing machines from healthcare firm Abbott that district hospitals and the city health department are using to test for the presence of the deadly virus.
He said the used rapid test kits were immediately disposed of by the City Department of Public Services after they were recovered while the area was subjected to disinfection procedure.
Hazardous waste disposal in the city is done through DENR-accredited hazardous waste service contractors, which are in charge of storage and disposal of all hazardous and infectious wastes generated in all health centers and district hospitals in the city.
