THE 2022 presidential elections will be a toss-up between Vice President Leni Robredo and former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., a survey conducted by the Pulse Asia from December 1 until 6 showed.
The Ulat ng Bayan survey likewise showed Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio besting Senate President Vicente Sotto III in the race for the country’s second top elective position.
The survey, which involved 2,400 adult respondents and had a ± 2 percent error margin, showed that more than half of the population, or 53 percent, said they would vote for Marcos if the elections were held today, up from 15 percent in September.
Twenty percent of the respondents said they will vote for Robredo (up from eight percent), followed by Manila City Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso and Sen. Manny Pacquiao with eight percent each (down from 13 percent and 12 percent, respectively).
Sen. Panfilo Lacson got six percent (unchanged from September), followed by retired general Antonio Parlade Jr. with 0.01 percent and Leody de Guzman with 0.04 percent.
Marcos was the first choice across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, with majorities in Mindanao (64 percent), Metro Manila (61 percent), Luzon and (51 percent) and in the Visayas (42 percent), as well as among Class D (54 percent), Class ABC (53 percent) and among Class E (49 percent).
Asked for their second choice for president in case their first choice does not push through with his or her candidacy, 23 percent said they will vote for Moreno, followed by Lacson (17 percent), Robredo (13 percent), Pacquiao (11 percent), Marcos (11 percent) and De Guzman, former national security adviser Norberto Gonzales and Parlade (0.2 percent each).
Robredo’s camp said the 2022 national elections “is now clearly a Robredo versus Marcos contest.”
Ibarra Gutierrez, the Vice President’s spokesman, said the 12-point jump in her numbers, which more than doubles her results from the last survey, “is definitive affirmation of the energy and momentum of the people’s campaign that emerged following her declaration of candidacy on October 7.”
“We are confident that in the next four months, VP Leni’s consistent, hands-on leadership and the enthusiastic efforts of our volunteers, will continue to broaden and increase her support. Simula pa lang ito. Ipapanalo natin ito (This is just the beginning. We’ll win this),” he said in a statement.
Several disqualification cases have been filed against Marcos before the Commission on Elections for his alleged tax evasion conviction. The poll body has yet to set the complaints for a hearing.
Meanwhile, Duterte-Caprio, who topped the presidential survey in September but opted to run as Marcos’ runningmate instead, was the first choice for vice president with 45 percent, followed by Sotto with 31 percent.
Other choices for vice president were Sen. Francis Pangilinan (12 percent), physician Willie Ong (6 percent), party-list Rep. Lito Atienza (1 percent) and party-list Rep. Walden Bellow (0.01).
The Davao City mayor was the first choice in Mindanao (82 percent) and Metro Manila (45 percent), and across socioeconomic status, with big pluralities among Class E (48 percent), Class ABC (47 percent) and Class D (44 percent).
Sotto was the first choice of respondents from Visayas (39 percent) and Luzon (36 percent).
Asked for their second choice for vice president in case their first choice will not push through with their candidacy, 32 percent said they will vote for Sotto. He was followed by Pangilinan (16 percent), Duterte-Carpio (13 percent), Ong (10 percent), Atienza (4 percent) and Bello (0.4 percent each).
In the Sept. 6-11 survey of Pulse Asia or a month before the official filing of candidacies, Marcos got 15 percent of support, followed by Domagoso with 13 percent, Pacquiao with 12 percent, Sen. Grace Poe with 9 percent, Robredo with 8 percent, and Lacson with 6 percent.
Duterte-Carpio topped that survey despite her pronouncements during the period that she is not running for president next year.
In the senatorial race, the Pulse Asia survey showed that the top 15 choices were Taguig City-Pateros Rep. Alan Cayetano (64.1 percent), broadcaster Raffy Tulfo (60 percent) Antique Rep. Loren Legarda (58.7 percent), Sorsogon Gov. Francis Escudero (53.9 percent), and former Public Works and Highways Secretary Mark Villar (51.3 percent).
Also in the top 15 were Senate majority leader Juan Miguel Zubiri (49.5 percent), former vice president Jejomar Binay (44.7 percent), Sen. Joel Villanueva (41.6 percent), Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian (40.1 percent), President Duterte (35.8 percent), actor Robin Padilla (35.6 percent) and Senator Risa Hontiveros (35.5 percent).
Still included in the possible winners were former senator Jinggoy Estrada (34.4 percent), former senators JV Estrada Ejercito (32.1 percent), and former Information and Communications secretary Gregorio Honasan (30.5 percent).
The Commission on Elections has yet to release the final list of the candidates for the May 9, 2022 elections. — With Wendell Vigilia
