METRO Manila remains at low risk for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the independent OCTA Research group said yesterday as it projected the positivity rate in the region to plateau above the five percent threshold set by the World Health Organization (WHO).
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said the current trend indicates that the positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) will linger somewhere in the seven percent level.
“The slower rate of decrease indicates a plateauing of the trend. There is a possibility that the positivity rate will remain above this level,” David said, adding that seeing a positivity rate of less than five percent is still attainable if the downtrend continues.
David said the current seven-day positivity rate for COVID-19 in the NCR decreased slightly from 7.8 percent (November 8) to 7.4 percent (November 15).
But while the positivity rate has plateaued, the OCTA fellow said the COVID-19 reproduction number in Metro Manila has increased from 0.83 (November 6) to 1.02 (November 13).
The weekly growth rate similarly increased from negative 18 percent to 11 percent during the same period.
OCTA said the average new cases daily spiked from 240 to 268.
David said the “NCR remains at low risk at this time” despite the higher reproduction number and the possibility of an uptick in the coming days.
“We will have to see what happens over the next few weeks,” he said. — Gerard Naval
