FOR the first time in almost two months, cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the National Capital Region (NCR) increased by eight percent for the period of November 8 to 14, the independent OCTA Research group said yesterday.
In a social media post, fellow Guido David noted that “the growth rate had been consistently negative since September 18, when the downward trend was confirmed.”
David said the seven-day average in new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila increased to 435, from 404 during the week of November 1 to 7.
He also said that the reproduction number in the region increased to 0.52, from 0.37 in the previous week.
President Duterte downgraded Metro Manila from Alert Level 3 to Alert 2 starting on November 5 until the end of the month. Under the system, more business establishments were allowed to open and accommodate more diners, and children were already allowed to leave their homes. The passenger capacity of public utility vehicles was likewise increased.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, citing the same numbers as OCTA’s, said: “NCR average daily cases plateaued in the recent week.”
Vergeire also said that Metro Manila remains under “low risk” classification, noting that its two-week growth rate stood at negative 52 percent, while the average daily attack rate stood at 3.01 per 100,000 population.
The health care utilization and the ICU utilization rates of NCR also stood at low risk at 26.55 percent and 30.72 percent, respectively.
Despite this, Vergeire said the public shouldn’t be alarmed and concerned yet that NCR cases may soon see a resurgence.
“If we do see that the trend continuous and is already significant, we will inform the public,” she said, adding: “But for now, we still have nothing to worry yet based on our case metrics.”
David likewise said there is no indication that NCR is seeing an upward trend in cases.
“At this time, we assume we are seeing a readjustment of numbers due to backlog,” he said as he stressed the need to continue observing minimum health protocols to avoid contracting the virus. “Let’s not be complacent,” he added.
Asked if the DOH is seeing a potential of cases surging anew, Vergeire noted a few incidents.
“There are some warning signs. We are seeing that mobility is increasing and adherence to health protocols is decreasing. It should serve as a warning to all of us. If this will continue, the probability of cases increasing in the coming weeks is there,” said Vergeire.
Nevertheless, the health official said the government still believes that NCR deescalating further to Alert Level 1 by December remains possible if the region sustains its low risk status for two incubation periods, or a total of 28 days.
She said NCR should also meet the threshold of 70 percent vaccine coverage for senior citizens, 70 percent vaccine coverage for people with comorbidities, and 50 percent vaccine coverage for all eligible population.
“In the NCR, we have more than 70 percent of our seniors vaccinated, the target population is at more than 50 percent. We are just running behind for people with comorbidities as it has yet to reach 70 percent,” she said.
Vergeire said that aside from NCR, 15 other regions and the national risk classifications are either at low risk or “minimal risk.”
Only the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) is still at “moderate risk” classification.
“(But) it is not happening in the whole CAR, just in selected areas,” Vergeire added.
The healthcare utilization rate in the region also remains at moderate risk.
