THE independent OCTA Research yesterday said the National Capital Region (NCR) could be classified as “moderate risk” by the first week of February if it is able to sustain the current downtrend in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the region.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said Metro Manila has now been classified as “high risk” from COVID-19 amid the continued improvement in its pandemic indicators.
“Last week, it was classified with a severe outbreak,” said David, adding: “(We are) expecting NCR to be at moderate risk by next week.”
If such a projection is met, David said it is impossible to see better numbers by Valentine’s Day.
“At this rate, new cases in the NCR could go below 500 by February 14,” said David.
OCTA data shows that the seven-day average cases in Metro Manila dropped to 6,280 for the period of January 19 to 25, from 15,782 during the period January 12 to 18.
The reproduction rate also continued to drop to 0.71 compared to 2.06 a week earlier.
The seven-day positivity rate also declined to 24 percent, from 36 percent.
Finally, the average daily attack rate (ADAR) also improved to 44 per 100,000 population, compared to 111 per 100,000 the previous week.
Meanwhile, the Department of Health yesterday reported three more COVID-19 patients hit by the Omicron variant have died, bringing the total number of deaths due to the highly transmissible lineage to five.
“As per verification, we now have five recorded deaths,” said Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, adding: “There were three additional deaths.”
The DOH said that based on initial information, three of the five deaths are senior citizens.
All five cases have known comorbidities, added the agency.
The DOH also related that one of the deaths is partially vaccinated and the other is unvaccinated. They are still verifying the vaccination status of the remaining three patients.
To note, the total number of confirmed Omicron variant cases in the country is now at 535.
