WITH cases at a downward trend in Metro Manila, the independent OCTA Research group yesterday projected that coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the region could go under 500 per day by the end of the month.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David said that “if the trends hold, we expect less than 500 new cases per day in the NCR (National Capital Region) by end of August or first week of September.”
David noted that the seven-day average in Metro Manila is down to 1,173 cases, with a one-week case growth rate of -9 percent.
The region’s one-week positivity rate is now at 15.7 percent (August 16), from 17.1 percent (August 9).
The average daily attack rate is likewise down to 8.14 per 100,000 population as of August 17, from 8.70 per 100,000 population on August 14, while the reproduction number has dropped to 1.03 (August 14) from 1.18 (August 7).
Likewise, as of August 16, health care utilization rate in the NCR stood at 37 percent, and the ICU occupancy rate at 31 percent.
Despite the lower numbers, David said the public should continue to observe health protocols and must not be complacent against COVID-19.
“The NCR remains at moderate risk at this time, as level of infections remain significant,” he said.