DESPITE the record-setting numbers in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases seen in recent days, the independent OCTA Research yesterday said the reproduction rate in Metro Manila is likely to drop below 1 by the middle of next month.
“By the middle of September, probably by September 13 to 14, based on our projections, it may drop to less than one in reproduction rate. This is just our projection. It may come earlier, it may come later depending on different factors,” OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said in a televised public briefing.
David said Metro Manila’s current reproduction rate is at 1.47. The World Health Organization (WHO) has said that the target is to maintain COVID-19’s reproduction rate at below 1.
Asked to which the drop in reproduction rate can be attributed to, OCTA fellow Professor Ranjit Rye said such would already be the impact of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) imposed in the region from August 6 until 20.
“The two-week ECQ helped a lot in slowing down transmission. It brought down the reproduction number after the ECQ,” said Rye, adding that the group is hoping that the trend would continue despite the decision to loosen mobility restriction to modified ECQ (MECQ).
“For this MECQ, we hope it can sustain the downward trend of the reproduction number,” said Rye.
He said the momentum can be sustained if the public will continue to strictly adhere to health protocols.
“There is a need to strengthen the enforcement of the minimum public health standards. Our suggestion is if it isn’t necessary to go out, just stay home,” he added.
The OCTA, however, said that while the reproduction rate is expected to decline, the healthcare utilization rate will remain high for the whole of September.
“The cases are still above the surge capacity so until it goes down further, beds and ICUs in Metro Manila will remain occupied,” David said.
Data shows that Metro Manila’s ICU bed utilization is at 73 percent, which is at high risk classification.
On the other hand, the current COVID-19 bed utilization in the NCR is at 67 percent, which is at moderate risk classification.
