THE independent OCTA Research Team yesterday said COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region are now on a decline, two weeks after the NCR Plus bubble was placed under enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) to control the spread of the virus.
Noting the impact of the March 20 to April 11 ECQ and the current modified ECQ in Metro Manila and the provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal, OCTA said in its latest monitoring: “The trend lines show a clear downward trajectory for new COVID-19 cases in the NCR.”
It said the number of new cases reported per day in the NCR averaged at 3,841 over the past week, a decrease of 30 percent from the average of 5,552 during the peak of the surge three weeks ago.
The research group also noted that the virus’ reproduction number (R naught) in the NCR is down to 0.93 for the week of April 18 to 24, a big improvement from the 1.90 prior to the ECQ imposition.
It likewise reported that the positivity rate in Metro Manila over the past week is down to 19 percent, from 25 percent three weeks ago.
The OCTA said the downward trend is a result of the negative growth rate recorded in all 17 local government units in the NCR in the past week.
Having the highest reduction in new cases in the past week are Manila (-33%), Parañaque (-31%), Malabon (-27%), Makati (-23%), and Marikina (-21%).
Solid downward trends, or those with at least two consecutive weeks of negative growth rate, were also observed in five NCR cities, which are Pasay, Manila, Navotas, Muntinlupa, and Caloocan.
Health Undersecretary and concurrent treatment czar Leopoldo Vega said that as active COVID-19 cases have started to drop below 100,000, the government the occupancy rate of hospitals and other medical facilities to start going down as well.
In a radio interview, Vega said the reduction of active COVID-19 cases to 89,000, as of April 24, is a welcome development because “the number of active cases has a direct connection to our healthcare utilization rate. Once the active cases go down, it has a corresponding decrease in the usage of hospital beds.”
To recall, it was last March 25 when the number of active COVID-19 cases went down to below 100,000, at 99,891.
Active COVID-19 cases in the country went up to as high as 203,710 in April 17.
Similarly, Vega noted that the gradual decline in the number of new cases being reported has given hospitals and other healthcare facilities a breather from a deluge of patients.
“Slowly, we were able to suppress transmission here in Metro Manila. Before, when we had 11,000 cases, 52 percent came from the NCR. Yesterday, when we had 9,000 cases, only 36 percent are from the NCR,” said Vega.
As of April 24, the occupancy rates of ICU beds nationwide was at 63 percent, isolation beds at 48 percent, and ward beds at 53 percent.
In the NCR, the occupancy rate of ICU beds is at 71 percent, isolation beds at 59 percent, and ward beds at 66 percent.
In a related development, Vega said they are continuously expanding the capacity of the One COVID-19 Referral Center, formerly known as One Hospital Command Center.
He said they have already opened more lines and have designated a hotline, 1555, with the help of PLDT, Inc. so that calls can be received faster.
Vega said they have also hired 35 more agents to receive calls, bringing their roster up to 65.
Vega said they have also partnered with the operation centers of local government units as a way to improve their network capacity.
The One Hospital Command was established back in August 2020 to facilitate a comprehensive and coordinated response to the COVID-19 pandemic by ensuring effective and efficient health facility referral in Metro Manila.
QUARANTINE LEVEL
Meanwhile, presidential spokesman Harry Roque yesterday said the Inter-Agency Task Force on the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) will meet on Tuesday to review, determine and recommend the next community quarantine level in the NCR Plus and the rest of the country.
Roque reiterated the decision will be based on science and hard data.
“The members of the IATF, in their next meeting, would look into the analytics of the healthcare system of the National Capital Region Plus and the country. Specifically, it will review the attack rate and the hospital care utilization rate while checking the economic health of the nation,” Roque said.
He repeated the government uses a whole-of-government approach with the end goal of promoting the total health of Filipinos, including people who have been marginalized due to loss of jobs and experienced poverty due to the imposition of strict lockdowns.
The MECQ in the NCR Plus is in effect until April 30. On the other hand, the Cordillera Administrative Region, the provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Batangas, and Lanao Del Sur and the cities of Tacloban, Iligan and Davao are under general community quarantine, while the rest of the country are under the most lenient modified general community quarantine. — With Jocelyn Montemayor
