DESPITE many super spreader events in the past months such as campaign rallies and the recently concluded May 9 elections, the OCTA Research group yesterday said there has been no sustained increase in the number of active cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the country.
OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David, during the Laging Handa public forum, said recent increases in cases would not lead to a hike in cases as high as the Omicron situation in January this year.
The Department of Health (DOH) yesterday said 1,118 new COVID cases were recorded throughout the country during the May 9 to 15 period.
“Ang average na bilang ng bagong kaso kada araw ngayong linggo ay nasa 160, mas mababa ng 0.3 percent kung ikukumpara sa mga kaso noong May 2 hanggang 8 (The average number of cases per day this week is 160, which is 0.3 percent lower compred to the number of cases from May 2 to 8),” the DOH added.
Of the new cases, 14 are classified as severe and critical.
The DOH also recorded 16 new deaths, of which 10 took place from May 2 to 15.
Infectious disease expert Dr. Edsel Salvana also said that since the rise in cases is minimal, there is no need to implement stricter mobility restrictions in any part of the country.
“Wala pa tayong nakikitang increase ng cases doon sa mga campaign rallies or sorties.
February pa tayo nagkaroon ng campaigns, wala pa namang nagkakaroon ng pagtaas ng kaso na talagang sustained… may nakikita tayong spikes pero maliliit lang iyon at nawawala agad (We have not seen an increase in the number of cases due to the campaign rallies or sorties. We started the campaigns in February, but we have not seen a sustained increase in cases even if there were spikes, which were low and which disappeared immediately),” David said.
David said it is best to wait for at least two more weeks to be certain that there is no clustering of cases due to the elections.
Salavaña echoed David’s observation, adding that the high vaccination rate in the country has helped in managing the cases.
“Even if the numbers increase, dahil sa antas ng pagbabakuna, ‘yung number of people developing severe and critical disease remain low (Even if the numbers increase, because of our vaccination rate, the number of people developing severe and critical disease remain low),” he said.
OMICRON SUBVARIANTS
David said OCTA continues to monitor the COVID situation in the country and is particularly concerned about the Omicron subvariants that led to surges in other countries.
He said the COVID cases will remain at 100 to 200 if subvariants will not enter and spread in the country, but it could reach thousands if any subvariant is locally transmitted.
“Definitely, tataas iyan tulad ng nakita natin sa South Africa. We can have a few thousand cases. Although, we don’t foresee na kung magkakaroon ng surge ay kasing lala ng January. It will be at a much lower rate at kaunti lang ang maho-hospitalize (Definitely, it will increase like what we are seeing in South Africa. We can have a few thousand cases.
Although, we don’t foresee that, if there will be a surge it will be as high as in January. It will be at a much lower rate and only a few will be hospitalized),” he said.
The DOH has reported that the more transmissible Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 has been detected in Metro Manila and Puerto Princesa in Palawan.
NO STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
Salvaña said he does not see a need for stricter protocols and more restrictions, including imposing lockdowns, despite the presence of several cases caused by Omicron subvariants.
“Sa ngayon, ang nakikita naman natin, hindi umaakyat iyung cases, okay naman ‘yung health care capacity, I don’t think kailangan maghigpit… Sa ngayon, minimal o low risk naman ‘yung health care utilization rate natin so I don’t think there’s any reason na maghihigpit tayo (For now, we are seeing no increase in the number of cases and our health care capacity is still okay. I don’t think we need to tighten restrictions… For now, our healthcare utilization rate is minimal or low, so I don’t think there’s any reason for us to tighten protocols),” he added.
Salvaña, who is also a member of the DOH Technical Advisory Group, said, though, that it is best to assume that subvariants are present in some communities and urged the public to continue to comply with public health standards such as wearing masks and observing social distancing and getting vaccinated and getting their booster shots.
As of May 15, more than 148.29 million doses of vaccine have been administered nationwide with 68.66 million fully vaccinated. More than 13.6 million have received their first booster shots. — With Ashzel Hachero
