THE two-week “stay at home” order of the government will not be enough to slow down the surge in new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, according to the independent OCTA Research Team, adding the best case scenario is for the spike to slow down in four weeks.
In a television interview, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said: “Right now, the reproduction number in NCR is about 2.1. If we want to reduce the number of cases, that means we have to reduce the reproduction number from 2 all the way down to 1. This cannot happen in two weeks, unfortunately. I’m not saying it’s impossible. But it seems very unlikely to happen, to reverse it in two weeks.
“Last time we had modified enhanced community quarantine, it took us 28 days to reduce the reproduction number from about 1.7 to less than 1. That could be like a best case scenario. It could take us about four weeks to start having a decrease in cases basing it from history,” David added.
OCTA aired the grim projection despite the fact that the number of new cases reported by the Department of Health yesterday went down to 5,867, still the fifth highest this year, from a high of 8,019 last Monday.
The DOH had attributed the spike to the presence of the United Kingdom and South African variants, the more contagious variants of the deadly virus, in Metro Manila, and the indifference of the public to health protocols.
In another television interview, Edson Guido of the ABS-CBN Data Analytic group, said the total number of infections in the country for March alone has totaled 101,411 so far, counting the 30,878 total of new cases from last Friday to Monday. He noted that the combined tally from January and February was more than 102,000.
Guido said the Philippines has overtaken Indonesia in terms of new cases daily in Southeast Asia, adding that no such spike has occurred in other Southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Vietnam.
David, however, said the two-week respite will still help to slow down the surge.
“If we can get it down to 1.5 to 1.6, that’s actually a big deal and we would be very happy to see that kind of reduction in reproduction number,” he said. “That’s probably the closest, the most optimistic we could get, if we could get the reproduction number down to 1.5.”
Last Sunday, the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) implemented stricter protocols in areas under general community quarantine (GCQ), namely, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna from March 22 to April 4 to try and stop the spike in new cases.
The DOH also reported that 20 more succumbed to the deadly virus, raising the death toll to 12,992, while the total number of survivors rose to 578,461 with 620 new recoveries.
But the number of active cases rose to 86,200, of which 95.4 percent are mild cases, 2.3 percent asymptomatic cases, 0.9 percent severe cases, 0.9 percent critical cases, and 0.49 percent moderate cases.
Twenty-one new cases among overseas Filipinos were reported by the Department of Foreign Affairs, raising the total number to 16,006 in 89 countries. The DFA said 9,702 have survived the virus, including two new recoveries.
The death toll among overseas Filipinos now stands at 1,047.
At the House of Representatives, 43 active COVID cases have now been reported, which brought the total number to 277, according to secretary general Mark Leandro Mendoza.
In all, 227 have recovered and seven have died, including Reps. Francisco Datol Jr. (PL, Senior Citizens) and Maria Bernardita “Ditas” Ramos of Sorsogon.
After placing the Batasan under a lockdown which ended last Monday, the House leadership suspended its session yesterday and today to avoid adding to the number of new cases and will resume session on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Dr. Rolando Cruz, chief of the Quezon City Epidemiology and Disease Surveillance, said 24 residents have been infected with the new variant of the virus.
During the Laging Handa press briefing, Cruz said as of 8 a.m. yesterday, the city has recorded a total of 40,591 cases, with 33,869 having recovered while 5,839 are active cases and 883 have died.
National Task Force Against the coronavirus disease (NTF) deputy implementer Vivencio “Vince” Dizon said at least 70 percent of the more than 100,000 isolation beds in the country are currently occupied amid the big surge in new cases.
Dizon said the government is trying to address this with the construction of more isolation facilities, especially in areas with high numbers of cases.
Dizon said the government is expected to open before the end of March a mega-isolation facility with a 500-bed capacity at the Manila Times Colleges in Subic.
The DOH has called on local government officials to increase their temporary treatment and monitoring facilities (TTMFs) to accommodate COVID patients who are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.
In a televised public briefing, Health Undersecretary Leopoldo Vega said such facilities are necessary because a large majority of patients are mild and asymptomatic.
“There is a need to increase isolation centers and TTMFs so we can transfer mild and asymptomatic cases there. That is our first line of defense before hospitals,” Vega said, noting that mild and asymptomatic cases represent around 97 percent of cases.
He added they will continue to encourage hospitals and medical facilities to expand their bed allocation for COVID patients.
Hospitals in Metro Manila currently have an overall occupancy rate of 60 percent, which is considered as moderate risk. But intensive care unit beds are already at 73 to 76 percent in the National Capital Region.
The OCTA team had earlier projected that all hospitals and medical facilities in Metro Manila will be overwhelmed by Easter Sunday, April 4.
The Pasay City General Hospital announced its COVID-bed capacity has now hit 107 percent, or 34 beds, due to the upsurge of individuals being infected with the deadly virus.
Dr. Jonvic De Garcia, Pasay City General Hospital Officer-in-charge said the city has originally allocated 32 beds for COVID patients.
As of yesterday, Pasay City had 10,255 confirmed cases, with 9,097 having recovered, 260 deaths, and 898 active cases. — With Ashzel Hachero, Wendell Vigilia, Victor Reyes and Noel Talacay
