OCTA: Incidence, positivity rates also down
THE reproduction rate of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is decreasing not only in the National Capital Region (NCR) but also in eight other areas considered as priorities in the government’s pandemic response, according to experts monitoring the COVID situation in the country.
The eight areas are Cebu and Davao cities, and the provinces of Batangas, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Pampanga, and Rizal. Together with the NCR or Metro Manila, which is the epicenter of COVID-19 in the country, these areas make up the “NCR Plus 8” and have been determined by government to be the most populous and at greatest risk for COVID-19 transmission.
Guido David of the OCTA Research group said the reproduction rate of the NCR Plus 8 has been on a decline compared to date data between October 14 and 20.
“All of NCR Plus Eight are on a downward trend with reproduction number all less than 0.55,” David said.
He said the NCR’s reproduction rate is now at 0.52 (from 0.60), Cebu City at 0.44 (from 0.46), Davao City 0.49 (from 0.62), Batangas 0.51 (from 0.57), Bulacan 0.50 (from 0.56), Cavite 0.43 (from 0.56), Laguna 0.45 (from 0.55), Pampanga 0.52 (from 0.56), and Rizal at 0.55 (from 0.60).
Aside from the reproduction rates, OCTA said said the positivity rates of the NCR Plus 8 areas are also declining.
Metro Manila’s positivity rate is now at 8 percent (from 10%), Cebu City at 6 percent (from 7%), Davao City 13 percent (from 16%), Batangas 11 percent (from 16%), Bulacan 16 percent (from 18%), Cavite 6 percent (from 8%), Laguna 17 percent (from 21%), Pampanga 15 percent (from 17%), and Rizal at 11 percent (from 18%).
Also going down are the average daily attack rates (ADARs) per 100,000 population of the NCR Plus Eight areas.
It said NCR’s ADAR is now at 8.79 (from 12.85), Cebu City at 2.47 (from 3.35), Davao City 6.26 (from 8.97), Batangas 4.46 (from 6.49), Bulacan 4.93 (from 6.73), Cavite 5.46 (from 9.96), Laguna 5.76 (from 8.38), Pampanga 4.71 (from 6.14), and Rizal at 6.46 (from 9.25).
OCTA earlier projected that the current “moderate risk” classification in Metro Manila will not last long.
“By the end of October, NCR may be at ‘low risk’ already,” David said last week.
The NCR has already been placed under the less restrictive Alert Level 3 until the end of October, together with Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, and Davao City.
Under Alert Level 2 are Batangas, and Cebu City.
The COVID-19 alert level system is based on the number of cases and the statuses of the health care utilization rate.
