But trend reversal still uncertain — OCTA
THE reproduction rate of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the National Capital Region (NCR) has gone down but a hoped-for decrease in cases remains uncertain, according to the independent OCTA Research Team.
Based on its latest monitoring report, the OCTA said the reproduction rate in Metro Manila has gone down to 1.74 as of August 10 from 1.8 on August 8.
It noted that the NCR’s reported 2,168 new COVID-19 cases last August 10 is lower than the 2,848 reported back on August 7.
It said the seven-day average (August 4-10) in the NCR is at 2,297 cases is an an increase of 43 percent from the previous week’s (July 28-August 3) seven-day average.
It also noted the current average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the NCR is at 16.45 per 100,000 per day which puts Metro Manila “ in the high-risk classification.”
Because of the contrasting indicators, OCTA said, it is still uncertain if the increasing trend in the NCR has been reversed.
“It is too early to determine if this is the start of a new trend. A change in direction of the reproduction number (i.e. from increasing to decreasing or vice-versa) always carries the most uncertainty,” said OCTA.
It said the trend in Metro Manila should be clearer within the next few days.
The Department of Health said the country’s positivity rate of 21.9 percent may climb further in the coming days because of the presence of the more transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19.
“Transmission is faster and easier. When we do the testing, we can see them immediately,” she said.
The positivity rate is the percentage of all swab tests conducted that turned out positive.
Vergeire attributed the increase in positivity rate to the aggressiveness of local government units in conducting contact tracing.
“Compared to before, they are now more proactive and they are now going to houses to test people, who may have had symptoms, have exposure, or are close contacts,” she said.
Vergeire also advised the general public to consider all cases as Delta variant cases “regardless of the symptoms.”
“Whatever are the symptoms, we must have this high index of suspicion because we know that it is easily transmitted,” she added.
“When you have symptoms of COVID-19, you should immediately isolate, call your barangay hotline, get tested and checked up,” said Vergeire.
“Through this, the manner of transmission will be cut off immediately,” she added.
Vergeire issued the advisory amid reports that Delta variant carries a different set of symptoms compared to the original virus.
The common symptoms of COVID-19 include fever, cough, difficulty in breathing, fatigue, muscle pains, headache, loss of taste, loss of smell, and diarrhea. Recently, studies abroad said the Delta variant carries allergy-like symptoms, such as sneezing, feeling congested, and coughing.
Vergeire said this only shows the continued mutation of the COVID-19 virus.
“Each COVID-19 case has different presentation of symptoms. It varies. It shows us how varied the symptoms of COVID-19 is,” she said.
