GIVEN the current trend, the independent OCTA Research yesterday projected that coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) may drop below 200 per day by the end of February.
In a social media post, OCTA fellow Guido David noted how COVID-19 indicators in Metro Manila have been improving recent days.
“At this rate of decrease, if the trends continue, the NCR could have less than 200 new cases per day by the end of February,” said David, as he adjusted his earlier projection that cases in the region could go below 500 by February 14.
“The NCR remained under moderate risk but is very close to moving down to low risk,” said David.
Data shows that the seven-day average cases in Metro Manila dropped to 1,264 during the period February 1 to 7, from 2,772 in January 25 to 31.
David said the positivity rate has also dropped to 9.6 percent from 13.4 percent the previous week, while the average daily attack rate (ADAR) dipped to 8.93 from 19.58 last week.
David also said the reproduction number decreased to 0.30 from 0.41 last week.
In a separate post, OCTA said five NCR local government units (LGUs) are already down to the “low risk” classification.
These LGUs are Caloocan City, Pateros, Navotas City, Taguig City, and Marikina City.
“Several other LGUs in the NCR are under moderate risk but are close to being classified as low risk,” said David.
Data shows the reproduction rates of Caloocan City at 0.28, Pateros at 0.18, Navotas City at 0.41, Taguig City at 0.28, and Marikina City at 0.28. These figures, David said, indicate that the areas are all at “very low risk” classification.
The average daily attack rates in Caloocan City are at 4.07, Pateros at 7.23, Navotas City at 7.76, Taguig City at 8.71, and Marikina City at 9.20, which all fall under the “moderate risk” classification.
The positivity rates of Caloocan City (9.6%), Pateros (9.6%), Navotas City (9.6%), Taguig City (9.6%), and Marikina City (9.6%) are also at “moderate risk” classification.
“These resulted in the overall classifications of low risk,” said OCTA.
MINDANAO
The Department of Health (DOH) yesterday reported that Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, and Soccsksargen continue to be at “high risk” from COVID-19.
“We have not seen the complete drop in cases in Regions 9, 10, 11, and 12. We are still monitoring these regions,” said Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire in a virtual press briefing.
Vergeire noted how the two-week growth rates of Zamboanga Peninsula (1%), Northern Mindanao (25%), Davao Region (19%), and Soccsksargen (118%) are still at moderate risk, while the average daily attack rates of Zamboanga Peninsula (9.04), Northern Mindanao (13.44), Davao Region (20.72), and Soccsksargen (12.57) are still at high risk.
Over-all, the DOH said the Philippines remains to be at moderate risk level with a negative 61 percent growth rate, and 11.35 ADAR.
Barring any spike in the number of new COVID-19 cases until the end of the month, the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) yesterday said it will recommend a downgrade to Alert Level 1 for the NCR by next month.
MMDA general manager Romano Artes, during the public briefing “Laging Handa,” said the most recent tally based on the official record of the DOH is at 1,271 cases with expectations that it will further drop in the coming days and weeks.
NCR mayors are holding regular discussion with the MMDA in anticipation of further improvements and pronouncements by the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF), Artes said.
“We are seeing a steady drop in COVID-19 cases and once we reach the threshold number for Alert Level 1, we will ask the IATF to declare it so we dan reopen the economy of Greater Manila as we know that this is the country’s business and trade hub,” Artes said.
The MMDA head assured that the mayors of NCR’s 16 cities and lone municipality have made all the preparations necessary for the lifting of restrictions on trade and other activities in Metro Manila.
He likewise disclosed that the proposal to require the presentation of booster cards as suggested by Presidential Adviser on Entrepreneurship Joey Concepcion has already been brought up before the Metro Manila Council as well as the IATF.
“We are already deliberating on it. The mayors have also proffered ideas to speed up administering booster shots. I don’t want to preempt but that it already on the table,” he said. — With Peter Tabingo
