AS Metro Manila readies to shift to Alert Level 2 by February 1, the independent OCTA Research yesterday said the region is expected to be at ‘low’ risk from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) within two weeks if the downtrend in indicators and new cases is sustained.
In a social media post, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said they expect the National Capital Region (NCR) to continue improving from its current “moderate risk” classification.
“NCR could improve to low risk within two weeks if downtrend continues,” said David.
OCTA data shows that NCR’s reproduction rate remained at “very low” and is now down to 0.47 as of January 29, from 0.52 as of January 27.
Its average daily attack rate improved from “very high” at 31.13 to “high” at 23.01 per 100,000 population.
The positivity rate of Metro Manila also remained at very high at 20 percent from 22 percent.
Aside from the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines, the OCTA said Cavite and Rizal are also down to moderate risk classification.
Data shows that Cavite has a very low reproduction rate of 0.69, high average daily attack rate of 20.30, and very high positivity rate of 27 percent.
Rizal, meanwhile, has a very low reproduction rate of 0.54, high average daily attack rate of 15.09, and very high positivity rate of 30 percent.
On the other hand, OCTA said the provinces of Batangas, Laguna, and Quezon are at high-risk classification.
Batangas has a low reproduction rate of 0.89, high average daily attack rate of 13.74, and very high positivity rate of 27 percent.
For its part, Laguna has a low reproduction rate of 0.77, high ADAR of 23.07, and very high positivity rate of 42 percent.
Meanwhile, Quezon has a high reproduction rate of 1.11, moderate average daily attack rate of 9.25, and very high positivity rate of 39 percent.
On Sunday, the Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) approved the shift of Metro Manila to Alert Level 2 starting February 1.
Aside from Metro Manila, other areas placed under Alert Level 2 are Batanes, Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal in Luzon; Biliran, and Southern Leyte in the Visayas; and Basilan in Mindanao.
