THE public’s desire for change and growing awareness on current issues in the country contributed to results of the 2025 midterm elections, particularly the high ranks of
several senatorial candidates who failed to make it to the Top 12 in pre-election surveys, officials of several survey companies said yesterday.
Youth participation in the May 12 polls and the youths’ rejection of political dynasties, and support and endorsement from vote-rich areas, the religious sector, and local government executives were also seen as factors in the election results.
OCTA Research’s Ranjit Rye and Guido David, Pulse Asia’s Ronald Holmes, Social Weather Stations’ Mahar Mangahas, and Stratbase Consultancy group’s Dindo Manhit shared their opinions and observations on the partial, unofficial results of the elections, particularly for the senatorial race where former senators Paolo Benigno “Bam” Aquino and Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan, and Sagip party-list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta made it to the Top 12 race despite their poor performance in electoral surveys.
An other expert, independent political analyst Michael Henry Yusingco, said the midterm elections had an “initial surprise” because senatorial candidates who were not, or have been ranking low, in pre-election surveys made it to the Top 12.
In an interview with Radyo 630, Yusingco said there is no “one explanation” but stressed that the one big factor is the youth vote.
“One point I realized is that there was anxiety about dynastic candidates and the Gen Z and the millennial voters, they showed anxiety by the way they voted),” Yusingco said in mixed Filipino and English.
He said the rejection of candidates belonging to “political dynasties” became more pronounced through the help of the mainstream media, who explained well of the job and functions of senators.
“Mainstream media were enlightening the voters’ minds, telling them to think twice if they still want to vote someone who belongs to a political dynasty which has been lording it over from a long time. So, that built up, and I think the Gen Z and the millennial voters acted on that anxiety,” he added.
In the case of Aquino and Pangilinan, Yusingco said, the two conducted a very effective ground campaigning, landing them in the second and fifth spots, respectively.
“They were able to communicate those (social) issues, particularly their solutions to those issues effectively on the ground. So, they had a very strong messaging. They had a very strong narrative that presented what they will do once elected,” he said.
SURVEYS NOT ABSOLUTE
Rye, David, Holmes and Mangahas all emphasized that the survey results were not absolute and were just a reflection or snapshot of what the public feels during the period that the surveys were conducted.
David, in an interview with Teleradyo 630, said it was just a guide and not a guarantee of the victory of the personalities who ranked high in their surveys.
David and Holmes said this does not mean that the surveys failed or are no longer credible.
Based on the partial and unofficial results of the 2025 elections, as of 6 p.m. of May 13, the Top 12 in the Senate race are Sen. Aquino, Sen. Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, former Social Welfare Secretary Erwin Tulfo, Pangilinan, Marcoleta, former senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson, former Senate President Vicente Tito” Sotto III, Sen. Pia Cayetano, Las Pinas Rep. Camille Villar, and Senators Lito Lapid and Imee Marcos.
Trailing behind the top 12 are independent candidate Ben Tulfo, Sen. Ramon “Bong” Revilla, Makati Mayor Abby Binay and former Interior Secretary Benjamin “Benhur” Abalos Jr.
In several surveys months before the elections, the usual topnotchers were Go, the Tulfo brothers, Sotto, Dela Rosa, Lacson, Cayetano, Revilla, and TV host Willie Revillame. Usually tied in the 10th to 16th place were Lapid, Binay, Villar, Aquino, Pangilinan, former Senator Manny Pacquiao, Marcos and Abalos.
Holmes, in an interview with ANC, said Marcoleta had ranked high in their survey only once but had eventually gone down.
He said this also holds true for other personalities in their Top 12 which, despite their rankings, had seen their voter preference rate go down monthly such as the Tulfo brothers, Revilla, Binay, Pacquiao, and Revillame.
He admitted that he was surprised by how high Aquino and Pangilinan ranked but said that their voter preference ratings, especially Aquino, had started to go up as the election neared.
‘RANKING RANGE’
This was similar to Guido’s observation, adding that those in top 18 to 20 of the partial and unofficial voting results were actually similar to what the survey results, including the April surveys which was done around three weeks before the election day.
He said that based on their survey analysis, those in the top 18 to 20 had chances of making it to the top 12 which actually happened despite the different rankings.
Guido said that if one looks at their survey result, they usually include the potential “ranking range” for the candidate such as first to second spot, or third to seventh spot, or third to 10th spot, and so on.
Guido and Holmes said the changes in ranking were possibly influenced by what the candidates had actually done, or not done, in the last three weeks prior to the elections and the endorsements that they received from local officials as well as some religious groups such as what happened to Aquino. Pangilinan and Marcoleta.
He said Aquino was endorsed by the Iglesia Ni Cristo and received the support of former Vice President Leni Robredo while Pangilinan was supported by Robredo and Marcoleta by the Dutertes, respectively.
Guido said in the case of Imee Marcos, she ranked high when she was with the administration slate but started to drop after the changes that she had adopted.
GEN Z, MILLENNIALS
Rye, in an interview with GMA Integrated News, said the youth sector may have also played a crucial role, as some of them previously expressed their opinion about the electoral survey results and vowed to go out and vote on election day.
Guido said the youth participation as a positive development especially as the Gen Z and millennial sectors account for around 57 percent of the voters while Holmes estimates that they constitute around 61 percent of the voters.
Holmes, however, said he does not believe the youth sector was a “monolithic group,” especially as they are divided because of different opinions.
Rye said they would need more data on the participation of the Gen Z and millennials to be certain, but they shared their opinion based on what they observed in their weeks before the elections.
Holmes also said some religious groups endorsed some candidates, which could have boosted their ranking. He however, said that the religious sector usually accounts for only about 5 percent of voters.
VOTE-RICH REGIONS
Rye, Guido and Holmes acknowledged that the votes from vote-rich regions and provinces were a big factor in the results.
They all said that while Aquino was in the bottom list of the surveys, he ranked high, and even landed first, in some provinces, as seen in the survey results that came out as the May elections neared.
The three acknowledged Aquino’s strong support from vote-rich regions Calabarzon and Central Luzon as well as vote-rich provinces such as Cebu and Ilocos.
In the case of Pangilinan, the three acknowledged that while he trailed in the surveys, he also received voters’ support in vote-rich provinces especially in Luzon, while Marcoleta benefitted from Mindanao votes.
‘REVENGE VOTE’
Mangahas, in an interview with GMA Integrated News, said the unofficial partial election results only prove that “anything can change” while Manhit, in a statement, said it reflects the Filipino’s demand for accountability, human rights and reform-oriented leadership.
Manhit also said that the votes for Aquino and Pangilinan served as a “revenge vote” against political toxicity, corruption, and empty promises.
Guido said it is a possible reflection or the public’s desire for reform or change in current developments in the government and political scene.
“When people vote for change, they are seeing some dissatisfaction,” he said in mixed English and Tagalog.
Rye said the results showed that “opposition really won.” He said the opposition refers to the “opposition Duterte, opposition pink.”
He also said that it only showed that the “pink movement” is alive.
“Obviously, they’re silent, but they organized very well,” he added.
Holmes said it should not be seen as a referendum for the Marcos administration especially since Marcos, before the elections, already suffered a drop in his performance and trust ratings based on different surveys.
“I will not qualify the votes as hopeful, angry or divided. I will just simply say that the administration slate failed to get what it should have gotten and I think that as a result, it is not so much as a referendum on the incumbent president,” he said.
ADVOCACIES
Mangahas observed that voters have been vocal in the surveys that they prefer candidates who ran on platforms and advocacies that are important to the people such as inflation and rising prices of commodities, jobs, food security, and health services among others.
Manhit shared this observation, saying Aquino and Pangilinan have “long been recognized for their unwavering advocacy for transparency, good governance, and social justice, offered clear and resonant platforms that addressed the pressing needs of the electorate.”
He said Aquino’s emphasis on free education and job creation, and Pangilinan’s passionate push for agricultural development and food security had struck a deep chord with a population that is already burdened by inflation, hunger, and lack of livelihood opportunities.
He added that the “independence” of Aquino and Pangilinan also gave them credibility and made them appealing to many Filipinos.
Manhit said the other candidates who have performed well in the senatorial race such as Sotto, Lacson, and Erwin Tulfo are known for their tough stance against corruption and inefficiency, which reinforces the electorate’s hunger for public servants who will clean up the system while Go, Dela Rosa, and Marcoleta fared well “because of their connection to prominent political families and programs like the Malasakit Center.”
EFFECTIVE PLAN
Yusingco said Aquino and Pangilinan laid out a campaign plan that was very effective, and that is by reaching out in areas where they are supposedly “weak.” This, he said, was even more effective than spending a lot of campaign funds for something else.
“They really went there and pressed flesh to show to the voters who they really were and what will do with the problems of the country,” he said in Filipino.
He said the role of the “legacy” or mainstream media in the outcome of the elections was big factor, compared to social media sites which are at times loaded with disinformation.
He said it was also one of the reasons a big number of candidates coming from the entertainment industry did not make it to the senatorial race.
“Meron na rin rejection of celebrities among voters. Particularly ako, ina-attribute ko — although I’m only basing this on observation and anecdotal evidence — that sa tingin ko yung Gen Z and millennial voters, they also rejected celebrities (There is also a rejection of celebrities among voters. I particularly attribute that — although I’m only basing this on observation and anecdotal evidence, — I think the Gen Z and the millennial voters, they also rejected celebrities),” he said.
“So, how would we explain that? Where did they get that kind of logic or thinking? Well, from you [mainstream media], right? Because you have many programs that you have shown to explain what the real job of a senator and what is the real job of lawmakers,” he said.
AKBAYAN
Guido and Manhit said the advertising campaign and the desire of the youth for changes may have contributed to the strong performance of the Akbayan partylist group in the elections.
“Akbayan is known for its progressive stance on good governance and human rights. Their lead in the party-list race is another strong signal that Filipinos, especially the youth, are reclaiming their power through informed and values-driven choices,” Manhit said.
Guido said nobody saw that Akbayan would be a top performer in the party-list race but their campaigning especially on social media may be a big factor in their ranking.
He said the agenda and advocacies for change that were promised by the ranking party-lists groups also contributed to their victories.
