Metro seeing dropping COVID positivity rate

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The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) is on a downtrend and is now nearing the 5 percent threshold set by the World Health Organization (WHO), the independent OCTA Research yesterday said.

OCTA data showed Metro Manila’s positivity rate is now down to 5.8 percent as of January 7, from 9.1 percent on December 31.

Positivity rate is the percentage of people who test positive for the virus out of the overall number of those who have been tested.

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Aside from Metro Manila, 17 provinces in Luzon are also seeing lower positivity rates in the recent week.

They include Isabela (37.6% to 35.1%), Albay (31.3% to 25.6%), Camarines Sur (17.5% to 15.2%), Nueva Ecija (28% to 11.2%), Rizal (15.8% to 10.9%), Laguna (10.5% to 7.3%), Cagayan (8.5% to 7%), Quezon (14.2% to 6.4%), Bataan (13.7% to 6.3%), Cavite (8.6% to 5.5%), La Union (8.1% to 5.5%), Pampanga (12.3% to 5.5%), Benguet (9% to 5.3%), Batangas (7.8% to 4.9%), Ilocos Norte (5.6% to 4.3%), Pangasinan (7.2% to 4.3%), and Bulacan (4.4% to 3.5%).

But the OCTA said two provinces saw higher positivity rates than the last week of 2022.

These are Tarlac (10.4% to 11.2%), and Zambales (6.9% to 8.4%).

OCTA fellow Guido David has previously said the group has a better outlook for the COVID-19 trend in the final weeks of 2022 and the start of 2023, citing as proof the decline of the positivity rates in majority of the areas they are monitoring.

“We are seeing that the positivity rate in Metro Manila is already going down. Those in several provinces have also started going down. There are only a few of them with increasing positivity rates,” said David.

In a press conference, Department of Health (DOH) Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the numerous holiday gatherings have yet to show a surge in COVID-19 cases.

Citing existing data, Vergeire said cases remain either at a plateau or are declining despite the Christmas and New Year holidays.

“As we have reported, we are having plateau in cases nationally. Cases are even declining in some of our regions,” said Vergeire, adding: “(The number) is not significant for us to say there is an uptick in cases as a result of the holiday season. (Although) We will continuously monitor.”

The health official said they are also hoping that a similar trend will be observed in the aftermath of the feast of the Black Nazarene.

She said their optimism comes after observing that many of the Black Nazarene devotees still wore face masks during the festivities.

“We have to count two weeks for the incubation period before we see if it had an effect in the number of cases,” she said.

“Hopefully, cases won’t surge because of this event. We hope to be able to maintain cases at the minimum just like in recent events we have had, like the May 2022 elections,” she also said.

At most, the DOH said their projections for February 15 is just above the 700-case mark.

As of the January 9 case bulletin, the country is just seeing an average of 447 new cases per day.

“If ever health protocol adherence declines and highly transmissible and evasive variants continue to enter the country, we would see around 730 cases by February 15,” she said.

EXTENDED STATE OF CALAMITY

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Ten days since it has expired, Vergeire said the DOH will continue to push for the extension of the declaration of a state of COVID calamity because the declaration is “significant because it is not just COVID-19 vaccination we are talking about here… there are other (responses) that are anchored on the declaration of state of calamity.”

“It is still significant for us. But, of course, we will heed the decision of the Office of the President,” said Vergeire.

Vergeire said the tax exemptions provided to the supplies they procure as well as the healthcare worker benefits all need the state of calamity before they can be implemented.

“It is in the state of calamity that we are given tax exemptions when we procure for these vaccines and other commodities that we need for COVID-19 response,” she said. “The health emergency allowance of healthcare workers is also anchored in the state of calamity declaration.”

The DOH has earlier asked President Marcos Jr. to extend the state of calamity declaration beyond December 31, 2022 to allow the government to continue its pandemic responses, including the procurement of the vaccines.

But Marcos publicly expressed that he is “very, very hesitant” to continue the state of calamity since such a status is no longer applicable in the Philippines.

The DOH, subsequently, stated that the government can still utilize the existing COVID-19 doses under the one-year validity given for those acquired through emergency use authority.

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