OCTA says 5 Mindanao cities still at ‘high risk’
THE National Capital Region (NCR), the epicenter of the cortonavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the Philippines, is now down to “low risk” classification for virus infection.
In a social media post, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said Metro Manila’s situation improved during the period February 3 until 9.
From being at “moderate risk” back in January 27 until February 2, David said NCR dropped to low risk “as predicted two weeks ago.”
David said the downgrade was due to the drop in the region’s seven-day case average, which is now down to 945 daily from 2,525 per day.
The one-week average daily attack rate (ADAR) also improved to 6.67 per 100,000 population from 17.83 per 100,000 people.
OCTA also noted that the reproduction number has decreased to 0.25 from 0.41 a week earlier.
The positivity rate likewise went down to 9.1 percent from being at 15 percent.
David also said Metro Manila’s healthcare utilization rate has improved after going down to 30 percent from 37 percent, while its ICU utilization level dipped to 32 percent from the previous 40 percent.
In late January, OCTA projected that Metro Manila could go down to low risk classification within two weeks if the downtrend in COVID indicators continues.
‘HIGH RISK’
Meanwhile, David said Davao City, Butuan City, Cagayan de Oro City, General Santos City, and Zamboanga City are still at “high risk” level as seen in their indicators, which remain to be in the red.
OCTA cited the positivity rates of Butuan City, which is at 27 percent, Cagayan de Oro City at 31 percent, Davao City at 25 percent, General Santos City at 55 percent, and Zamboanga City at 27 percent.
Also, the average daily attack rates of Butuan City remain high at 10.48, Cagayan de Oro City at 11.77, Davao City at 13.61, General Santos City at 12.66, and Zamboanga City at 14.97.
But David pointed out that the reproduction rates in Butuan City (0.56), Cagayan de Oro City (0.55), Davao City (0.52), General Santos City (0.81), and Zamboanga City (0.76) are already at “low” to “very low” levels.
Improvements are also evident in the case growth rates of Butuan City (-62%), Cagayan de Oro City (-62%), Davao City (-64%), General Santos City (-47%), and Zamboanga City (-42%).
“With the observed downward trends in these cities, we expect most of them to be at moderate risk by next week,” said David.
Going ahead of the five highly urbanized cities are Cotabato City and Iligan City, which are already at moderate risk.
‘LOW RISK’ PH?
For his part, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said the entire country may also drop to low-risk classification if the national average daily attack rate improves to 7 cases per 100,000 population, from the current 9.64 per 100,000 people.
“For the entire country, the two-week growth rate of negative 60 percent is at low risk already. Once the ADAR drops to 7 per 100,000 population, which is moderate risk, we will be at low risk nationwide,” said Duque.
The Department of Health (DOH) has said that the country is still at moderate risk level.
The health chief said the key to continuing the downward trend remains to be in the hands of the people.
“The answer is really getting vaccinated and adhering to the minimum public health standards,” said Duque.
