The Department of Health (DOH) yesterday said Metro Manila remains at “low” risk classification despite the rise in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases.
In a statement, the DOH said an escalation to a “moderate” risk classification requires a positive two-week growth rate (TWGR) and an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of at least six average cases per day per 100,000 population.
“As of June 15, 2022, while NCR (National Capital Region) shows positive TWGR, its ADAR is still below 6, at less than 1 case per 100,000 population,” said the DOH, adding: “The NCR would require at least 818 cases daily for two weeks to reach an ADAR of 6 cases per 100,000 population.”
In addition, the health department said the region’s health care utilization rate (HCUR) remains low since majority of COVID-19 infections still do not require admissions in health facilities.
“What is important is the number of severe and critical hospital admissions. So long as these numbers remain low, we will stay at the current alert level while carefully monitoring the situation,” it added.
The DOH appealed to the public to ensure that their updates on the COVID-19 pandemic will come from official sources only, or else risk unnecessary panic.
“All concerned are advised to consult with the DOH first before making any forecasts and issuing statements that may cause unnecessary panic and harm among the public,” said the DOH.
The DOH issued the statement after the independent OCTA Research said the NCR’s risk classification has climbed to moderate from low.
In a television interview yesterday morning, OCTA fellow Guido David said: “Based on our metrics, this is our metrics and not necessarily the same as the one used by the Department of Health (DOH), Metro Manila has moved from low to moderate risk.”
David said this means that the numbers will most likely continue to increase in the coming days.
“We are not projecting a big surge like what happened in January or last year. We are projecting a few hundred cases at the peak of the surge in Metro Manila,” he said.
OCTA data shows that the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the NCR is currently at 0.99 per 100,000 population; reproduction number at 1.56; and positivity rate at 3.3 percent.
But on Thursday evening, David said that their data showed that NCR is still at low-risk classification.
“The NCR remains at low risk based on our metrics,” said David in a social media post.
He said that whether the region is under low or moderate risk classification, Alert Level 2 should still not be raised in the NCR because the healthcare utilization rate in the region continues to be low.
“We are still looking at the healthcare utilization, and it is still very low at this time,” said David, explaining that having a low hospital occupancy rate, he explained, means that the healthcare system is still capable of handling COVID-19 patients.
“It has not really affected the healthcare system too much,” said David.
Numbers used by OCTA show that NCR’s health care utilization is still “very low” at 23 percent.
In the event of a surge in hospital admissions, the Private Hospitals Association of the Philippines Inc. (PHAPi) said they are worried over the possibilities of facing healthcare workers shortage.
In a televised public briefing, PHAPi president Dr. Jose Rene de Grano said that while there will be no shortage in COVID-19 beds, the healthcare industry is facing a dilemma because nearly half of the medical frontliners in private hospitals have already resigned.
“We are always ready for the COVID-19 cases as we didn’t shut down our COVID-19 areas, the beds have remained. We are prepared to admit these patients. (But) one potential limitation is we might have shortages in nurses in the event that there will be a surge in COVID-19 cases. By our estimates, about 40 to 50 percent of our nurses have left. We lost about half of our nurses,” De Grano said.
De Grano also said that despite pronouncements from the government, majority of PHAPi’’s members have yet to receive their One COVID-19 Allowance (OCA).
“We have been asking our member private hospitals, some said they have received their OCA. But majority of our members have not received their OCA (for 2022) yet,” he said.
De Grano said such is unacceptable as private hospitals have already completed their requirements.
“Some were told they still lack documentary requirements. But, from what we know, they have submitted them. We are still waiting,” he said.
The OCA is set to be provided to all healthcare workers involved in the COVID-19 response in the country. The monthly allowance rate shall depend on the exposure classification of the medical frontliners, with P9,000 for high risk, P6,000 for moderate risk, and P3,000 for low risk.
The DOH asked PHAPI to submit the names of their member-hospitals that have yet to receive their OCAs, saying that private hospitals should simply coordinate with the DOH – Centers for Health Development (CHDs) or the regional offices for follow-up.
“We welcome closer coordination with all hospitals, including members of the PHAPI, to allow for the fast distribution of the OCA to our deserving health care workers,” it said, adding: “DOH-CHDs welcome the submission of names of the private hospitals encountering difficulties so that the issues can be addressed immediately.”
So far, the health department said funds for OCA for January to February 2022 have already been downloaded to the CHDs.
It said DOH-CHDs may already transfer funds to private hospitals as soon as they forge a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA).
The DOH said the DOH-CHDs will also require a full accounting or liquidation of any funds previously given to the hospitals.
