16 provinces reach ‘very high risk’ status: OCTA
METRO Manila (National Capital Region) is now out of the “severe risk” classification for COVID-19 transmission as the number of infections continued to decline over the weekend, the OCTA Research group said yesterday.
But 16 provinces are going the opposite direction and have reached the “very high risk” classification, according to the group which monitors the COVID-19 situation in the country.
OCTA Research fellow Guido David said reproduction rate in Metro Manila, the epicenter of COVID cases in the country, has gone down to 1.2 on January 22 from 2.07 on January 18.
“NCR (has been) downgraded from severe outbreak to very high risk,” David also said.
Also continuing its improvement is the NCR’s seven-day growth rate, which stands at negative 42 percent, from 10 percent on January 18, and the average daily attack rate (ADAR) which dropped to 72.05 per 100,000 population, from 111.47 per 100,000 people on January 18.
Last Friday, David said OCTA is projecting that the NCR will have about 2,000 to 3,000 cases by the end of January. “Hopefully, by Valentine’s Day, it would be down to about 1,000 cases per day in NCR. And by the end of February, it would be down to about less than 500 cases,” he said.
He noted the NCR pattern is similar to the one seen in South Africa due to the Omicron variant.
“If we follow the South Africa model, it actually peaked after about two weeks from the start of the surge, followed by a fairly rapid decrease,” he said.
The 16 provinces identified by OCTA to have reached the “very high risk” classification based on their respective ADARs.
Topping the list are Cavite (58.48), Laguna (58.41), Bataan (53.61), Kalinga (50.39), Rizal (43.91), Mountain Province (43.45), La Union (42.24), and Ilocos Norte (33.87).
Also in the list are Nueva Vizcaya (31.28), Cagayan (30.42), Apayao (30.39), Bulacan (29.80), Ifugao (29.12), Pampanga (29.02), Batangas (26.68), and Iloilo (25.28).
“Cases are still increasing in the provinces on the list. (They are) very high risk provinces,” said David.
Still at “severe risk” classification is is Benguet with an ADAR of 94.26.
