GIVEN the improvement in the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation in Metro Manila, the independent OCTA Research yesterday said it foresees that the National Capital Region (NCR) will be under “moderate” risk classification in a week’s time.
The OCTA said: “Using COVID Act Now guidelines, NCR remained at high risk, but could possibly improve to moderate risk within a week.”
In its latest monitoring report, the OCTA said the seven-day average of new cases in the NCR has decreased by 17 percent.
From last week’s seven-day average of 4,674 cases per day, the number went down to 3,891 daily cases for the past seven days.
The reproduction rate in Metro Manila also continued to decline and is now at 0.87, which is classified as “low risk” from COVID-19.
Just a week ago, the NCR reproduction rate was at 0.99, which is under the moderate risk classification.
The average daily attack rate in Metro Manila, however, remain under the “critical risk” classification at 27.86 per 100,000 population.
The NCR positivity rate was also classified under “high risk” at 18 percent.
At the same time, OCTA said that 11 areas in Metro Manila are still under high risk classification, while six others are at moderate risk classification.
Classified as high risk are San Juan, Makati, Mandaluyong, Pasig, Quezon City, Taguig, Parañaque, Marikina, Las Piñas, Muntinlupa, and Caloocan.
Under moderate risk, on the other hand, are Pateros, Valenzuela, Pasay, Malabon, Manila, and Navotas.
ALERT LEVEL
National Task Force against coronavirus disease (COVID-19) special adviser Dr. Ted Herbosa yesterday said the alert level in Metro Manila could be lowered in October following the drop in infections in the region and the continuing increase in the number of fully vaccinated people.
Metro Manila was placed from September 16 until 30 under Alert Level 4, the highest alert level in the new quarantine system which the government is pilot testing in the region, the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.
The Inter-agency Task Force (IATF) for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases was set to decide and recommend to the President last night the new alert level for the NCR and the quarantine classifications for the other parts of the country.
The President was set to address the nation and possibly announce the alert levels and quarantine classifications on Thursday night.
Herbosa said the recorded decreasing number of daily active cases, along with the growing number of vaccinated individuals, and the need to continue the reopening of the economy point to a possible lowering of alert level.
More than 7.2 million residents in Metro Manila or 73.7 percent are now fully vaccinated, while 8.4 million are waiting for their second dose. A total of 15.6 million doses of vaccines have already been administered in NCR.
“Based on the numbers, especially here in NCR, the numbers are going down especially the reproductive number or number of infected — it is now below one — and the number of new cases on Wednesday was 12,000,” Herbosa said.
Herbosa, however, said that despite the decreasing number of cases, many hospitals remain almost full because most of the patients who have previously been hospitalized have yet to be discharged.
The Private Hospitals Association of the Philippines Inc. (PHAPI) has appealed to the national government to extend the Alert Level 4 in NCR for another two weeks.
In Baguio City, Mayor Benjamin Magalong said the city has been averaging 270 to 280 cases a day since August 20 since COVID-19 cases started to surge.
As of Wednesday, the city has already recorded 24,365 cases, with 4,526 active cases and 487 deaths. There were 308 new cases and nine deaths reported on Wednesday.
“Here in Baguio, we started the surge on August 20 and we’re now one month and one week and we expect the surge will continue until maybe three weeks or another four weeks,” Magalong said.
Magalong said hospitals in the city, including the Baguio City General Hospital, are already overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. — With Jocelyn Montemayor and Victor Reyes
