OCTA notes downtrend in COVID cases
THE independent OCTA Research yesterday said the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) classification of the National Capital Region is likely to become “low risk” before the month ends as it noted the current downtrend in the region.
In a radio interview, OCTA fellow Guido David said the “moderate risk” classification of Metro Manila will not last long as “by the end of October, NCR may be at low risk based on our criteria.”
The region improved to moderate risk in early October, following a surge in August and September.
David said the seven-day average in Metro Manila is now only at 2,000 cases.
“We have already seen the peak, and the number of cases is really decreasing,” he said, also noting the absence of any threat that may lead to a new surge in cases.
“We do not see any variant of concern today that is threatening and may enter our country. So, we really think that it (improvement) will continue until Christmas,” he added.
Data from the Department of Health shows that a total of 2,005 cases were recorded in Metro Manila last Saturday.
NCR cities with most cases last Saturday were Taguig City (466), Quezon City (451), Manila City (145), Marikina City (139), and Caloocan City (109).
Meanwhile, vaccine panel member and infectious disease expert Dr. Rontgene Solante yesterday raised concerns about the possible lowering of alert level in Metro Manila amid the improving COVID-19 condition in the country, and the nearing Christmas holidays when many people usually gather for parties and reunions.
The NCR has been under Alert Level 4 since September 15. The government is looking at either extending or lowering the alert level after October 15. Among those being considered in determining the alert level is the number of COVID cases and reproductive rates, and the hospital capacity utilization rates.
Solante, in an interview with radio DzBB, said proof of the improving COVID situation, especially in NCR, is the lower number of cases and freeing up of emergency rooms (ERs) in many hospitals. He said ER occupancy is now at 20 to 30 percent.
He, however, said that intensive care units (ICUs) in hospitals remain full or at high risk levels as many patients who now come in for COVID are either severe or critical cases.
He also said that some hospitals already have limited ICU slots.
Solante also raised concern about the upcoming pilot testing of face-to-face classes in some parts of the country, recommending that it would be better for children to be fully vaccinated first before they are allowed to return to school.
He said that just because there are only a few children who get infected with COVID-19 does not mean that they are not at risk.
He said vaccinating children is important and will provide them added protection, similar to the protection it provides to adults.
The Department of Education is set to pilot test face-to-face classes on November 15 in schools located in areas with low cases of COVID-19.
The government is set to start the inoculation of children aged between 15 to 17 years old in eight hospitals in NCR on October 15 to be followed with the vaccination of 12 to 14 years old. The second phase, which will expand the vaccination of kids to six areas in Metro Manila, will start on October 22, and the third phase on October 29 to the rest of NCR.
A total of 86.39 million doses of vaccine against COVID-19 have arrived in the country as of October 10, including the 918,450 doses of Pfizer vaccines donated by the United States government through the COVAX facility. — With Jocelyn Montemayor
